Official measurements from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) confirm Madrid's highest temperature on March 25 reached exactly 22°C at key weather stations like Retiro Park, locking in trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns with pre-event forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models predicting mild spring conditions under high-pressure influence, with maximums capped by light cloud cover and northerly winds limiting daytime heating. No significant deviations occurred, as surface observations matched hourly data without late-afternoon spikes. While data revisions are rare post-validation, an unlikely audit uncovering overlooked station readings above 22°C could challenge this, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of records. Traders await no further updates, as resolution criteria are met.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on March 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 25?
22°C 100.0%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$116,201 Vol.
$116,201 Vol.
22°C
100%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
22°C 100.0%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$116,201 Vol.
$116,201 Vol.
22°C
100%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official measurements from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) confirm Madrid's highest temperature on March 25 reached exactly 22°C at key weather stations like Retiro Park, locking in trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. This aligns with pre-event forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models predicting mild spring conditions under high-pressure influence, with maximums capped by light cloud cover and northerly winds limiting daytime heating. No significant deviations occurred, as surface observations matched hourly data without late-afternoon spikes. While data revisions are rare post-validation, an unlikely audit uncovering overlooked station readings above 22°C could challenge this, though historical precedents show such adjustments affect less than 1% of records. Traders await no further updates, as resolution criteria are met.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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