Florida's 20th Congressional District, with its strong Democratic lean reflected in a Cook PVI of D+22, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party nominee at 87% implied probability for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick faces mounting challenges after a House Ethics subcommittee found her guilty on 25 counts tied to allegations of embezzling $5 million in FEMA disaster funds for her campaigns, prompting a crowded Democratic primary featuring high-profile challengers like Luther "Uncle Luke" Campbell, who issued a statement criticizing the scandal on March 27. Republicans hold just 11.5% odds amid a weak field and no notable contender, with the August 18 primary and potential mid-decade redistricting as key upcoming catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de la elección de la Cámara FL-20
Ganador de la elección de la Cámara FL-20
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
87%
Partido Republicano
12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
$0 Vol.
87%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 20th Congressional District, with its strong Democratic lean reflected in a Cook PVI of D+22, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party nominee at 87% implied probability for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick faces mounting challenges after a House Ethics subcommittee found her guilty on 25 counts tied to allegations of embezzling $5 million in FEMA disaster funds for her campaigns, prompting a crowded Democratic primary featuring high-profile challengers like Luther "Uncle Luke" Campbell, who issued a statement criticizing the scandal on March 27. Republicans hold just 11.5% odds amid a weak field and no notable contender, with the August 18 primary and potential mid-decade redistricting as key upcoming catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 20th Congressional District, with its strong Democratic lean reflected in a Cook PVI of D+22, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party nominee at 87% implied probability for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick faces mounting challenges after a House Ethics subcommittee found her guilty on 25 counts tied to allegations of embezzling $5 million in FEMA disaster funds for her campaigns, prompting a crowded Democratic primary featuring high-profile challengers like Luther "Uncle Luke" Campbell, who issued a statement criticizing the scandal on March 27. Republicans hold just 11.5% odds amid a weak field and no notable contender, with the August 18 primary and potential mid-decade redistricting as key upcoming catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 20th Congressional District, with its strong Democratic lean reflected in a Cook PVI of D+22, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party nominee at 87% implied probability for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick faces mounting challenges after a House Ethics subcommittee found her guilty on 25 counts tied to allegations of embezzling $5 million in FEMA disaster funds for her campaigns, prompting a crowded Democratic primary featuring high-profile challengers like Luther "Uncle Luke" Campbell, who issued a statement criticizing the scandal on March 27. Republicans hold just 11.5% odds amid a weak field and no notable contender, with the August 18 primary and potential mid-decade redistricting as key upcoming catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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