Trader sentiment on Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 remains tightly contested, with implied probabilities nearly even between 1.0-2.0% (32.5%) and an outlier 7.0%+ (31.1%), reflecting deep uncertainty from escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. Recent ECB updates slashed the 2026 forecast to 0.9% from 1.5%, citing inflation rebounding to 2.6% and recession risks (<0% at 23.8%), while OECD cut to 0.8% amid energy shocks; baseline consensus from EY and Conference Board holds near 1.3%, supported by German fiscal stimulus adding ~0.5 percentage points. Bullish camps differentiate on robust policy offsets like ECB hikes and EU resilience versus bearish geopolitical drags. Q1 2026 GDP flash due late April will be pivotal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado1,0-2,0% 52%
5,0-6,0% 26.6%
<0% 23.5%
3,0-4,0% 21.6%
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
24%
0-1,0%
22%
1,0-2,0%
33%
2,0-3,0%
18%
3,0-4,0%
22%
4,0-5,0%
19%
5,0-6,0%
27%
6,0-7,0%
26%
7.0%+
31%
1,0-2,0% 52%
5,0-6,0% 26.6%
<0% 23.5%
3,0-4,0% 21.6%
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
$0 Vol.
24%
0-1,0%
$0 Vol.
22%
1,0-2,0%
$0 Vol.
33%
2,0-3,0%
$0 Vol.
18%
3,0-4,0%
$0 Vol.
22%
4,0-5,0%
$1,306 Vol.
19%
5,0-6,0%
$0 Vol.
27%
6,0-7,0%
$0 Vol.
26%
7.0%+
$0 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 remains tightly contested, with implied probabilities nearly even between 1.0-2.0% (32.5%) and an outlier 7.0%+ (31.1%), reflecting deep uncertainty from escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. Recent ECB updates slashed the 2026 forecast to 0.9% from 1.5%, citing inflation rebounding to 2.6% and recession risks (<0% at 23.8%), while OECD cut to 0.8% amid energy shocks; baseline consensus from EY and Conference Board holds near 1.3%, supported by German fiscal stimulus adding ~0.5 percentage points. Bullish camps differentiate on robust policy offsets like ECB hikes and EU resilience versus bearish geopolitical drags. Q1 2026 GDP flash due late April will be pivotal.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$1,306Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 remains tightly contested, with implied probabilities nearly even between 1.0-2.0% (32.5%) and an outlier 7.0%+ (31.1%), reflecting deep uncertainty from escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. Recent ECB updates slashed the 2026 forecast to 0.9% from 1.5%, citing inflation rebounding to 2.6% and recession risks (<0% at 23.8%), while OECD cut to 0.8% amid energy shocks; baseline consensus from EY and Conference Board holds near 1.3%, supported by German fiscal stimulus adding ~0.5 percentage points. Bullish camps differentiate on robust policy offsets like ECB hikes and EU resilience versus bearish geopolitical drags. Q1 2026 GDP flash due late April will be pivotal.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,306Fecha de finalización
Jan 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 remains tightly contested, with implied probabilities nearly even between 1.0-2.0% (32.5%) and an outlier 7.0%+ (31.1%), reflecting deep uncertainty from escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. Recent ECB updates slashed the 2026 forecast to 0.9% from 1.5%, citing inflation rebounding to 2.6% and recession risks (<0% at 23.8%), while OECD cut to 0.8% amid energy shocks; baseline consensus from EY and Conference Board holds near 1.3%, supported by German fiscal stimulus adding ~0.5 percentage points. Bullish camps differentiate on robust policy offsets like ECB hikes and EU resilience versus bearish geopolitical drags. Q1 2026 GDP flash due late April will be pivotal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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