Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by rating agencies' stable AA+ outlooks from S&P and Fitch despite Moody's lingering negative watch since late 2023. Elevated fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP exceeding 120% persist amid rising interest payments—now the largest federal expenditure—but robust GDP growth above 2.5% annualized and resilient Treasury demand have offset downgrade pressures. Post-election Republican control of Congress eases debt ceiling brinkmanship risks after January 2025 reinstatement, bolstering sentiment. Key catalysts ahead include FY2025 budget negotiations and Q1 2025 economic data, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4% signaling contained borrowing costs versus historical norms.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Otra rebaja de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Otra rebaja de la deuda de EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Sí
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by rating agencies' stable AA+ outlooks from S&P and Fitch despite Moody's lingering negative watch since late 2023. Elevated fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP exceeding 120% persist amid rising interest payments—now the largest federal expenditure—but robust GDP growth above 2.5% annualized and resilient Treasury demand have offset downgrade pressures. Post-election Republican control of Congress eases debt ceiling brinkmanship risks after January 2025 reinstatement, bolstering sentiment. Key catalysts ahead include FY2025 budget negotiations and Q1 2025 economic data, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4% signaling contained borrowing costs versus historical norms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by rating agencies' stable AA+ outlooks from S&P and Fitch despite Moody's lingering negative watch since late 2023. Elevated fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP exceeding 120% persist amid rising interest payments—now the largest federal expenditure—but robust GDP growth above 2.5% annualized and resilient Treasury demand have offset downgrade pressures. Post-election Republican control of Congress eases debt ceiling brinkmanship risks after January 2025 reinstatement, bolstering sentiment. Key catalysts ahead include FY2025 budget negotiations and Q1 2025 economic data, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4% signaling contained borrowing costs versus historical norms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against another US sovereign debt downgrade before 2027, driven by rating agencies' stable AA+ outlooks from S&P and Fitch despite Moody's lingering negative watch since late 2023. Elevated fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP exceeding 120% persist amid rising interest payments—now the largest federal expenditure—but robust GDP growth above 2.5% annualized and resilient Treasury demand have offset downgrade pressures. Post-election Republican control of Congress eases debt ceiling brinkmanship risks after January 2025 reinstatement, bolstering sentiment. Key catalysts ahead include FY2025 budget negotiations and Q1 2025 economic data, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.4% signaling contained borrowing costs versus historical norms.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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