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Geopolítica·Líbano

¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Líbano

¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?

Sí

7% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Sí

7% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic tensions following a cluster of recent actions. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over a dispute involving IRGC blacklisting, while U.S. officials revealed on April 3 the prior quiet expulsion of Iran's deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani from December 2025, with at least two others in recent months. Lebanon expelled Iran's ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani around March 24 amid political frictions. Absent new verifiable provocations, plots, or escalatory signals in the past two weeks, markets anticipate no further expulsions before the deadline, though late-breaking national security concerns could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$9,810
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic tensions following a cluster of recent actions. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over a dispute involving IRGC blacklisting, while U.S. officials revealed on April 3 the prior quiet expulsion of Iran's deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani from December 2025, with at least two others in recent months. Lebanon expelled Iran's ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani around March 24 amid political frictions. Absent new verifiable provocations, plots, or escalatory signals in the past two weeks, markets anticipate no further expulsions before the deadline, though late-breaking national security concerns could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$9,810
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" con 7%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 7¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 7% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 6, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" es "¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" con solo 7%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.