Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48% implied probability for South Korea's 2026 annual CPI exceeding 3.0%, reflecting heightened risks from surging oil prices amid Middle East tensions and Iran-related disruptions, which could amplify energy cost passthrough. The Bank of Korea's February outlook raised its 2026 CPI forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%, aligning with private estimates like Standard Chartered's 2.4% under $85/barrel oil assumptions, while bins around 1.5–2.6% capture 24–26% each as base cases if geopolitical pressures ease. February 2026 headline CPI held steady at 2.0% YoY—below 2.1% expectations—but core inflation ticked to 2.5% and producer prices accelerated to 2.4%, signaling building momentum. Watch March CPI release and upcoming BoK meetings for resolution cues.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert3,0 %+ 49%
1,8 % bis 2,0 % 24%
2,4 % bis 2,6 % 24%
<1,5 % 18.0%
$10,007 Vol.
$10,007 Vol.
<1,5 %
23%
1,5 % bis 1,7 %
26%
1,8 % bis 2,0 %
24%
2,1 % bis 2,3 %
7%
2,4 % bis 2,6 %
24%
2,7 % bis 2,9 %
4%
3,0 %+
49%
3,0 %+ 49%
1,8 % bis 2,0 % 24%
2,4 % bis 2,6 % 24%
<1,5 % 18.0%
$10,007 Vol.
$10,007 Vol.
<1,5 %
23%
1,5 % bis 1,7 %
26%
1,8 % bis 2,0 %
24%
2,1 % bis 2,3 %
7%
2,4 % bis 2,6 %
24%
2,7 % bis 2,9 %
4%
3,0 %+
49%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
Markt eröffnet: Feb 6, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in South Korea’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (December CPI % change compared to the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MODS Consumer Price Survey report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MODS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on December 31, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mods.go.kr/board.es?mid=a20109020000&bid=11751&eng_board_type=01
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the South Korean Consumer Price Index to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.0%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://mods.go.kr/schdl.es?mid=a20301000000
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 48% implied probability for South Korea's 2026 annual CPI exceeding 3.0%, reflecting heightened risks from surging oil prices amid Middle East tensions and Iran-related disruptions, which could amplify energy cost passthrough. The Bank of Korea's February outlook raised its 2026 CPI forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%, aligning with private estimates like Standard Chartered's 2.4% under $85/barrel oil assumptions, while bins around 1.5–2.6% capture 24–26% each as base cases if geopolitical pressures ease. February 2026 headline CPI held steady at 2.0% YoY—below 2.1% expectations—but core inflation ticked to 2.5% and producer prices accelerated to 2.4%, signaling building momentum. Watch March CPI release and upcoming BoK meetings for resolution cues.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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