Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Shanghai high of 16°C at 44.5% implied probability, driven by the latest forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF, which project daytime peaks near 16°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds enhancing mild advection. Recent observational data from the past 24 hours shows morning lows around 10°C and steady warming, aligning with seasonal March norms where highs average 13–17°C amid transitioning spring patterns. GFS ensemble runs show slight spread between 15–17°C, reflecting model uncertainty in low-level moisture and diurnal heating. Official hourly updates from Shanghai's Xujiahui station through March 27 afternoon will refine the peak, with traders pricing in minimal risk of exceeding 18°C given capped solar insolation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 27. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 27. März?
16°C 44%
15°C 28%
17°C 19%
18°C 5.4%
$64,978 Vol.
$64,978 Vol.
11°C oder darunter
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
4%
15°C
28%
16°C
44%
17°C
19%
18°C
5%
19°C
2%
20°C
<1%
21°C oder höher
<1%
16°C 44%
15°C 28%
17°C 19%
18°C 5.4%
$64,978 Vol.
$64,978 Vol.
11°C oder darunter
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
4%
15°C
28%
16°C
44%
17°C
19%
18°C
5%
19°C
2%
20°C
<1%
21°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Shanghai high of 16°C at 44.5% implied probability, driven by the latest forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF, which project daytime peaks near 16°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds enhancing mild advection. Recent observational data from the past 24 hours shows morning lows around 10°C and steady warming, aligning with seasonal March norms where highs average 13–17°C amid transitioning spring patterns. GFS ensemble runs show slight spread between 15–17°C, reflecting model uncertainty in low-level moisture and diurnal heating. Official hourly updates from Shanghai's Xujiahui station through March 27 afternoon will refine the peak, with traders pricing in minimal risk of exceeding 18°C given capped solar insolation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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