Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Seattle high of 50-51°F at 28.5% implied probability, with 48-49°F and 52-53°F tied at 21% each, capturing model uncertainty just days from March 29. The National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast points to 50-52°F under partly cloudy conditions, driven by a weak upper-level ridge allowing mild air but moderated by the Puget Sound marine layer and potential stratus clouds limiting diurnal heating. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs diverge slightly—cooler ensembles emphasize overnight cloud persistence and light onshore flow, while warmer ones anticipate breaks for solar insolation—against a March climatological average of 54°F. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution and boundary layer mixing; updated model guidance and Seattle-Tacoma observations through March 28 will sharpen the outlook.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Seattle on March 29?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 29?
50-51°F 29%
52-53°F 21%
48-49°F 19%
54-55°F 16%
37°F or below
1%
38-39°F
2%
40-41°F
2%
42-43°F
5%
44-45°F
5%
46-47°F
6%
48-49°F
19%
50-51°F
29%
52-53°F
21%
54-55°F
16%
56°F or higher
10%
50-51°F 29%
52-53°F 21%
48-49°F 19%
54-55°F 16%
37°F or below
1%
38-39°F
2%
40-41°F
2%
42-43°F
5%
44-45°F
5%
46-47°F
6%
48-49°F
19%
50-51°F
29%
52-53°F
21%
54-55°F
16%
56°F or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Seattle high of 50-51°F at 28.5% implied probability, with 48-49°F and 52-53°F tied at 21% each, capturing model uncertainty just days from March 29. The National Weather Service's latest short-range forecast points to 50-52°F under partly cloudy conditions, driven by a weak upper-level ridge allowing mild air but moderated by the Puget Sound marine layer and potential stratus clouds limiting diurnal heating. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs diverge slightly—cooler ensembles emphasize overnight cloud persistence and light onshore flow, while warmer ones anticipate breaks for solar insolation—against a March climatological average of 54°F. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution and boundary layer mixing; updated model guidance and Seattle-Tacoma observations through March 28 will sharpen the outlook.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen