Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 28°C or higher in Hong Kong on March 19, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast projecting peaks of 29-30°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge fostering warm air advection and sunny conditions. This aligns with recent model outputs from ECMWF and GFS showing minimal cloud interference and low wind shear, elevating temperatures well above the March historical average of 23-24°C. Such positioning reflects verified short-range guidance with over 95% model agreement. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen maritime surge or isolated showers introducing evaporative cooling, though probabilities remain below 5% per ensemble forecasts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Hong Kong on March 19?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 19?
28°C or higher 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
Yes
28°C or higher 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 16, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 28°C or higher in Hong Kong on March 19, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast projecting peaks of 29-30°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge fostering warm air advection and sunny conditions. This aligns with recent model outputs from ECMWF and GFS showing minimal cloud interference and low wind shear, elevating temperatures well above the March historical average of 23-24°C. Such positioning reflects verified short-range guidance with over 95% model agreement. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen maritime surge or isolated showers introducing evaporative cooling, though probabilities remain below 5% per ensemble forecasts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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