Traders' near-unanimous consensus on a Chicago high of 56°F or higher on March 19 stems from aligned forecasts from NOAA's National Weather Service and GFS/ECMWF models projecting peaks near 60-65°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly winds and above-normal temperatures. This warm anomaly builds on recent mild March patterns, with Chicago's climatological average high around 48°F, supported by high-resolution HRRR model runs showing minimal cloud cover and ample insolation. Scenarios challenging this include an unexpected cold front or northerly wind shift from evolving Great Lakes low pressure, though current ensemble probabilities keep such downside risks below 5%, per Weather Prediction Center outlooks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 19. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 19. März?
56°F oder höher 100.0%
37°F oder darunter <1%
38-39°F <1%
40-41°F <1%
$19,614 Vol.
$19,614 Vol.
37°F oder darunter
Nein
38-39°F
Nein
40-41°F
Nein
42-43°F
Nein
44-45°F
Nein
46-47°F
Nein
48-49°F
Nein
50-51°F
Nein
52-53°F
Nein
54-55°F
Nein
56°F oder höher
Ja
56°F oder höher 100.0%
37°F oder darunter <1%
38-39°F <1%
40-41°F <1%
$19,614 Vol.
$19,614 Vol.
37°F oder darunter
Nein
38-39°F
Nein
40-41°F
Nein
42-43°F
Nein
44-45°F
Nein
46-47°F
Nein
48-49°F
Nein
50-51°F
Nein
52-53°F
Nein
54-55°F
Nein
56°F oder höher
Ja
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 15, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' near-unanimous consensus on a Chicago high of 56°F or higher on March 19 stems from aligned forecasts from NOAA's National Weather Service and GFS/ECMWF models projecting peaks near 60-65°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southerly winds and above-normal temperatures. This warm anomaly builds on recent mild March patterns, with Chicago's climatological average high around 48°F, supported by high-resolution HRRR model runs showing minimal cloud cover and ample insolation. Scenarios challenging this include an unexpected cold front or northerly wind shift from evolving Great Lakes low pressure, though current ensemble probabilities keep such downside risks below 5%, per Weather Prediction Center outlooks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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