Latest ensemble forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS peg Chengdu's March 26 high temperature at around 23°C, driving trader consensus toward 23°C (35.5%) over 24°C (29.5%), with the slim edge reflecting minor model spread amid a high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and southerly winds for enhanced diurnal heating. Historical March highs average 17-19°C, but recent observations show a mild warming trend from persistent subtropical air masses, elevating baseline expectations. Differentiating factors include potential low-level clouds muting peak insolation by 1°C in some runs versus full solar exposure in others, plus urban heat island amplification in Chengdu's basin topography; traders await hourly updates from the China Meteorological Administration for resolution clarity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
23°C 36%
24°C 30%
22°C 12%
25°C 12%
$14,442 Vol.
$14,442 Vol.
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
6%
22°C
12%
23°C
36%
24°C
30%
25°C
12%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
<1%
23°C 36%
24°C 30%
22°C 12%
25°C 12%
$14,442 Vol.
$14,442 Vol.
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
6%
22°C
12%
23°C
36%
24°C
30%
25°C
12%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major models like ECMWF and GFS peg Chengdu's March 26 high temperature at around 23°C, driving trader consensus toward 23°C (35.5%) over 24°C (29.5%), with the slim edge reflecting minor model spread amid a high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and southerly winds for enhanced diurnal heating. Historical March highs average 17-19°C, but recent observations show a mild warming trend from persistent subtropical air masses, elevating baseline expectations. Differentiating factors include potential low-level clouds muting peak insolation by 1°C in some runs versus full solar exposure in others, plus urban heat island amplification in Chengdu's basin topography; traders await hourly updates from the China Meteorological Administration for resolution clarity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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