Polymarket traders assign a 61.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, outpacing lower bins amid resilient economic momentum. The Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections raised the median 2026 GDP forecast to 2.4%, with central tendency 2.3–2.5% and distribution skewed higher, driven by solid labor markets and productivity gains from AI investments. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast for Q1 eased to 2.0% as of March 23, reflecting Q4 2025's soft 0.7% annualized print and oil price spikes from Middle East tensions. Consensus estimates cluster nearby—Goldman Sachs at 2.8%, Vanguard 2.5%, CBO 2.2%—ahead of late-April Q1 advance GDP and April nonfarm payrolls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
>2,5 % 62%
1,5–2,0 % 13.7%
<0,5 % 10.0%
2,0–2,5 % 10%
$25,066 Vol.
$25,066 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
10%
0,5–1,0 %
4%
1,0–1,5 %
7%
1,5–2,0 %
14%
2,0–2,5 %
10%
>2,5 %
62%
>2,5 % 62%
1,5–2,0 % 13.7%
<0,5 % 10.0%
2,0–2,5 % 10%
$25,066 Vol.
$25,066 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
$3,681 Vol.
10%
0,5–1,0 %
$14,955 Vol.
4%
1,0–1,5 %
$1,432 Vol.
7%
1,5–2,0 %
$0 Vol.
14%
2,0–2,5 %
$1,338 Vol.
10%
>2,5 %
$3,660 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a 61.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, outpacing lower bins amid resilient economic momentum. The Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections raised the median 2026 GDP forecast to 2.4%, with central tendency 2.3–2.5% and distribution skewed higher, driven by solid labor markets and productivity gains from AI investments. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast for Q1 eased to 2.0% as of March 23, reflecting Q4 2025's soft 0.7% annualized print and oil price spikes from Middle East tensions. Consensus estimates cluster nearby—Goldman Sachs at 2.8%, Vanguard 2.5%, CBO 2.2%—ahead of late-April Q1 advance GDP and April nonfarm payrolls.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$25,066Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a 61.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, outpacing lower bins amid resilient economic momentum. The Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections raised the median 2026 GDP forecast to 2.4%, with central tendency 2.3–2.5% and distribution skewed higher, driven by solid labor markets and productivity gains from AI investments. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast for Q1 eased to 2.0% as of March 23, reflecting Q4 2025's soft 0.7% annualized print and oil price spikes from Middle East tensions. Consensus estimates cluster nearby—Goldman Sachs at 2.8%, Vanguard 2.5%, CBO 2.2%—ahead of late-April Q1 advance GDP and April nonfarm payrolls.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$25,066Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 61.5% implied probability to US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, outpacing lower bins amid resilient economic momentum. The Federal Reserve's March 18 Summary of Economic Projections raised the median 2026 GDP forecast to 2.4%, with central tendency 2.3–2.5% and distribution skewed higher, driven by solid labor markets and productivity gains from AI investments. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast for Q1 eased to 2.0% as of March 23, reflecting Q4 2025's soft 0.7% annualized print and oil price spikes from Middle East tensions. Consensus estimates cluster nearby—Goldman Sachs at 2.8%, Vanguard 2.5%, CBO 2.2%—ahead of late-April Q1 advance GDP and April nonfarm payrolls.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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