Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by surging Eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target amid energy price spikes from the Iran conflict. The Governing Council unanimously held key interest rates steady on April 30—deposit facility at 2%—while signaling readiness for hikes, as President Lagarde highlighted persistent inflationary pressures including supply chain strains. April inflation accelerated to 3.0% from 2.6% in March, prompting forecasters like Morgan Stanley and IMF to abandon cut predictions in favor of tightening. The June 11 rate decision remains a key watchpoint for further hawkish signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
Ja
$27,913 Vol.
$27,913 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by surging Eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target amid energy price spikes from the Iran conflict. The Governing Council unanimously held key interest rates steady on April 30—deposit facility at 2%—while signaling readiness for hikes, as President Lagarde highlighted persistent inflationary pressures including supply chain strains. April inflation accelerated to 3.0% from 2.6% in March, prompting forecasters like Morgan Stanley and IMF to abandon cut predictions in favor of tightening. The June 11 rate decision remains a key watchpoint for further hawkish signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen