The ECB Governing Council kept key interest rates unchanged at its March 19 meeting—deposit rate at 2%—while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, driven by energy price surges from the escalating Iran conflict. President Christine Lagarde stated on March 25 that the bank stands ready to hike rates as early as April if inflation spikes persist, even temporarily. A Reuters poll of economists shows broad consensus for steady rates through 2026, as eurozone inflation lingers above the 2% target until mid-2027. Traders' 80.5% "No" implied probability reflects this hawkish outlook amid geopolitical risks, ahead of the April 30 policy decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$20,764 Vol.
$20,764 Vol.
Ja
$20,764 Vol.
$20,764 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The ECB Governing Council kept key interest rates unchanged at its March 19 meeting—deposit rate at 2%—while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, driven by energy price surges from the escalating Iran conflict. President Christine Lagarde stated on March 25 that the bank stands ready to hike rates as early as April if inflation spikes persist, even temporarily. A Reuters poll of economists shows broad consensus for steady rates through 2026, as eurozone inflation lingers above the 2% target until mid-2027. Traders' 80.5% "No" implied probability reflects this hawkish outlook amid geopolitical risks, ahead of the April 30 policy decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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