Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability for a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Review, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures after the March quarter CPI held steady at 3.1% annually—above the 2% target midpoint and consensus forecasts of 2.9%. The RBNZ's April 8 decision maintained the stimulatory OCR at 2.25%, below its estimated neutral rate near 3%, but adopted a hawkish tone, warning of "decisive" hikes if core inflation and wage growth accelerate, with projections for CPI nearing 4.2% in Q2. No-change odds at 34% hinge on the upcoming May 27 review and Q2 data releases, while cut probability remains slim at 5.7% amid firm economic activity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertReserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?
Increase 57%
No Change 40%
Decrease 1.9%
Increase
57%
No Change
40%
Decrease
2%
Increase 57%
No Change 40%
Decrease 1.9%
Increase
57%
No Change
40%
Decrease
2%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 8, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability for a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase at the July 2026 Monetary Policy Review, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures after the March quarter CPI held steady at 3.1% annually—above the 2% target midpoint and consensus forecasts of 2.9%. The RBNZ's April 8 decision maintained the stimulatory OCR at 2.25%, below its estimated neutral rate near 3%, but adopted a hawkish tone, warning of "decisive" hikes if core inflation and wage growth accelerate, with projections for CPI nearing 4.2% in Q2. No-change odds at 34% hinge on the upcoming May 27 review and Q2 data releases, while cut probability remains slim at 5.7% amid firm economic activity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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