Recent developments in euro-area inflation have driven strong trader consensus for at least one ECB rate hike during 2026. Updated staff projections released in March show headline inflation averaging 2.6 percent this year, revised higher due to energy-price increases linked to Middle East developments, with core measures also firming. The Governing Council has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through April meetings while stressing data dependence and risks of second-round effects. Money-market pricing now incorporates a 25-basis-point tightening by mid-year, and several board members have highlighted the shift toward possible policy reversal. Weak growth forecasts around 0.9 percent have been viewed as secondary to the inflation outlook, supporting the market's assessment that a hike remains the base case through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEZB-Zinserhöhung im Jahr 2026?
EZB-Zinserhöhung im Jahr 2026?
Ja
$115,007 Vol.
$115,007 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$115,007 Vol.
$115,007 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in euro-area inflation have driven strong trader consensus for at least one ECB rate hike during 2026. Updated staff projections released in March show headline inflation averaging 2.6 percent this year, revised higher due to energy-price increases linked to Middle East developments, with core measures also firming. The Governing Council has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through April meetings while stressing data dependence and risks of second-round effects. Money-market pricing now incorporates a 25-basis-point tightening by mid-year, and several board members have highlighted the shift toward possible policy reversal. Weak growth forecasts around 0.9 percent have been viewed as secondary to the inflation outlook, supporting the market's assessment that a hike remains the base case through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$115,007Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in euro-area inflation have driven strong trader consensus for at least one ECB rate hike during 2026. Updated staff projections released in March show headline inflation averaging 2.6 percent this year, revised higher due to energy-price increases linked to Middle East developments, with core measures also firming. The Governing Council has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through April meetings while stressing data dependence and risks of second-round effects. Money-market pricing now incorporates a 25-basis-point tightening by mid-year, and several board members have highlighted the shift toward possible policy reversal. Weak growth forecasts around 0.9 percent have been viewed as secondary to the inflation outlook, supporting the market's assessment that a hike remains the base case through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$115,007Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in euro-area inflation have driven strong trader consensus for at least one ECB rate hike during 2026. Updated staff projections released in March show headline inflation averaging 2.6 percent this year, revised higher due to energy-price increases linked to Middle East developments, with core measures also firming. The Governing Council has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through April meetings while stressing data dependence and risks of second-round effects. Money-market pricing now incorporates a 25-basis-point tightening by mid-year, and several board members have highlighted the shift toward possible policy reversal. Weak growth forecasts around 0.9 percent have been viewed as secondary to the inflation outlook, supporting the market's assessment that a hike remains the base case through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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