Trader sentiment on China’s 2026 annual CPI remains tightly contested, with implied probabilities split between mild deflation (-0.9% to -0.5% at 19.9%) and the government’s “around 2%” target range (1.6–2.0% at 18.6%), reflecting uncertainty over structural demand weakness versus policy support. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 1.3% year-on-year—its highest in three years—driven by Lunar New Year food and service price surges and core inflation hitting 1.8%, easing prior deflation fears amid producer price declines narrowing to -0.9%. However, persistent property sector drag, subdued consumer spending, and patchy reflation keep deflationary bets viable, while fiscal stimulus pledges and export resilience back higher brackets. Key swing factors include the imminent March CPI release and PBOC monetary easing signals, with trader capital pricing a fragile recovery path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertChina Jährliche Inflation 2026
China Jährliche Inflation 2026
-0,9 – -0,5 % 20.3%
0,1 – 0,5 % 17%
0,6 – 1,0 % 15%
-0,4 – 0,0 % 14.4%
$30,497 Vol.
$30,497 Vol.
10. Jan. 2027
<-1,0 %
5%
-0,9 – -0,5 %
20%
-0,4 – 0,0 %
14%
0,1 – 0,5 %
15%
0,6 – 1,0 %
15%
1,1 – 1,5 %
11%
1,6 – 2,0 %
19%
2,0-2,4 %
6%
2,5 %+
13%
-0,9 – -0,5 % 20.3%
0,1 – 0,5 % 17%
0,6 – 1,0 % 15%
-0,4 – 0,0 % 14.4%
$30,497 Vol.
$30,497 Vol.
10. Jan. 2027
<-1,0 %
$16,679 Vol.
5%
-0,9 – -0,5 %
$1,684 Vol.
20%
-0,4 – 0,0 %
$1,711 Vol.
14%
0,1 – 0,5 %
$1,543 Vol.
15%
0,6 – 1,0 %
$1,533 Vol.
15%
1,1 – 1,5 %
$2,002 Vol.
11%
1,6 – 2,0 %
$2,381 Vol.
19%
2,0-2,4 %
$1,506 Vol.
6%
2,5 %+
$1,458 Vol.
13%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Trader sentiment on China’s 2026 annual CPI remains tightly contested, with implied probabilities split between mild deflation (-0.9% to -0.5% at 19.9%) and the government’s “around 2%” target range (1.6–2.0% at 18.6%), reflecting uncertainty over structural demand weakness versus policy support. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 1.3% year-on-year—its highest in three years—driven by Lunar New Year food and service price surges and core inflation hitting 1.8%, easing prior deflation fears amid producer price declines narrowing to -0.9%. However, persistent property sector drag, subdued consumer spending, and patchy reflation keep deflationary bets viable, while fiscal stimulus pledges and export resilience back higher brackets. Key swing factors include the imminent March CPI release and PBOC monetary easing signals, with trader capital pricing a fragile recovery path.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volumen
$30,497Enddatum
10. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Trader sentiment on China’s 2026 annual CPI remains tightly contested, with implied probabilities split between mild deflation (-0.9% to -0.5% at 19.9%) and the government’s “around 2%” target range (1.6–2.0% at 18.6%), reflecting uncertainty over structural demand weakness versus policy support. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 1.3% year-on-year—its highest in three years—driven by Lunar New Year food and service price surges and core inflation hitting 1.8%, easing prior deflation fears amid producer price declines narrowing to -0.9%. However, persistent property sector drag, subdued consumer spending, and patchy reflation keep deflationary bets viable, while fiscal stimulus pledges and export resilience back higher brackets. Key swing factors include the imminent March CPI release and PBOC monetary easing signals, with trader capital pricing a fragile recovery path.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volumen
$30,497Enddatum
10. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on China’s 2026 annual CPI remains tightly contested, with implied probabilities split between mild deflation (-0.9% to -0.5% at 19.9%) and the government’s “around 2%” target range (1.6–2.0% at 18.6%), reflecting uncertainty over structural demand weakness versus policy support. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 1.3% year-on-year—its highest in three years—driven by Lunar New Year food and service price surges and core inflation hitting 1.8%, easing prior deflation fears amid producer price declines narrowing to -0.9%. However, persistent property sector drag, subdued consumer spending, and patchy reflation keep deflationary bets viable, while fiscal stimulus pledges and export resilience back higher brackets. Key swing factors include the imminent March CPI release and PBOC monetary easing signals, with trader capital pricing a fragile recovery path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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