Polymarket traders price a 77% implied probability of a Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) Selic rate cut at the June 18-19 Copom meeting, reflecting consensus on sustained disinflation amid softer April IPCA inflation at 3.69% year-over-year—below the 3.82% consensus forecast—and weakening retail sales signaling economic slowdown. The central bank's May 8 decision to trim rates by 25 basis points to 10.50% reinforced the easing cycle, though Copom minutes flagged fiscal expansion risks that temper aggressive cuts, elevating "No Change" odds to 18.5% while keeping hikes at just 9%. Key watchpoints include May IPCA data on June 11 and fiscal bill progress, which could sway the terminal rate path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBank of Brazil Decision in June?
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?
Decrease 77%
No Change 19%
Increase 9%
Increase
9%
No Change
19%
Decrease
77%
Decrease 77%
No Change 19%
Increase 9%
Increase
9%
No Change
19%
Decrease
77%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
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0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 77% implied probability of a Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) Selic rate cut at the June 18-19 Copom meeting, reflecting consensus on sustained disinflation amid softer April IPCA inflation at 3.69% year-over-year—below the 3.82% consensus forecast—and weakening retail sales signaling economic slowdown. The central bank's May 8 decision to trim rates by 25 basis points to 10.50% reinforced the easing cycle, though Copom minutes flagged fiscal expansion risks that temper aggressive cuts, elevating "No Change" odds to 18.5% while keeping hikes at just 9%. Key watchpoints include May IPCA data on June 11 and fiscal bill progress, which could sway the terminal rate path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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