Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for no change at the Bank of Canada's June 2025 policy meeting, driven by November 2024 CPI cooling to 1.9% headline—below the 2% target—yet sticky core measures near 2.4% and resilient labor markets tempering cut expectations from the current 3.75% policy rate. The elevated 32% odds for a rate increase reflect trader concerns over prospective U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration fueling imported inflation, diverging from earlier easing bias after the BoC's December 50 basis point cut. Low probabilities for decreases (7.5% for 25 bps, 6% for 50+ bps) stem from balanced growth signals. Key catalysts ahead include January CPI, Q1 GDP, and employment data shaping data-dependent guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
Increase 32%
25 bps decrease 8%
50+ bps decrease 6%
No change 0
50+ bps decrease
6%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
63%
Increase
32%
Increase 32%
25 bps decrease 8%
50+ bps decrease 6%
No change 0
50+ bps decrease
6%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
63%
Increase
32%
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for no change at the Bank of Canada's June 2025 policy meeting, driven by November 2024 CPI cooling to 1.9% headline—below the 2% target—yet sticky core measures near 2.4% and resilient labor markets tempering cut expectations from the current 3.75% policy rate. The elevated 32% odds for a rate increase reflect trader concerns over prospective U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration fueling imported inflation, diverging from earlier easing bias after the BoC's December 50 basis point cut. Low probabilities for decreases (7.5% for 25 bps, 6% for 50+ bps) stem from balanced growth signals. Key catalysts ahead include January CPI, Q1 GDP, and employment data shaping data-dependent guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen