Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change (93.7% implied probability) in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29, 2026 announcement, reflecting the central bank's March 18 decision to hold steady at 2.25% amid balanced inflation risks. February consumer price index eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—driven by base effects from prior GST relief expiration, yet core measures remain sticky and global factors like energy shocks, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts introduce upside pressures that deter cuts. Hikes carry slim 5.5% odds given subdued growth. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March CPI (due mid-April) or employment data signaling recessionary risks, potentially prompting a 25 basis point cut.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Bank of Canada im April?
Entscheidung der Bank of Canada im April?
Keine Änderung 93.7%
Erhöhung 5.5%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 1.3%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$56,408 Vol.
$56,408 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung
94%
Erhöhung
6%
Keine Änderung 93.7%
Erhöhung 5.5%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 1.3%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$56,408 Vol.
$56,408 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$14,174 Vol.
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$20,717 Vol.
1%
Keine Änderung
$13,733 Vol.
94%
Erhöhung
$7,784 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change (93.7% implied probability) in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29, 2026 announcement, reflecting the central bank's March 18 decision to hold steady at 2.25% amid balanced inflation risks. February consumer price index eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—driven by base effects from prior GST relief expiration, yet core measures remain sticky and global factors like energy shocks, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts introduce upside pressures that deter cuts. Hikes carry slim 5.5% odds given subdued growth. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March CPI (due mid-April) or employment data signaling recessionary risks, potentially prompting a 25 basis point cut.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$56,408Enddatum
Apr 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change (93.7% implied probability) in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29, 2026 announcement, reflecting the central bank's March 18 decision to hold steady at 2.25% amid balanced inflation risks. February consumer price index eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—driven by base effects from prior GST relief expiration, yet core measures remain sticky and global factors like energy shocks, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts introduce upside pressures that deter cuts. Hikes carry slim 5.5% odds given subdued growth. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March CPI (due mid-April) or employment data signaling recessionary risks, potentially prompting a 25 basis point cut.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$56,408Enddatum
Apr 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change (93.7% implied probability) in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its April 29, 2026 announcement, reflecting the central bank's March 18 decision to hold steady at 2.25% amid balanced inflation risks. February consumer price index eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—driven by base effects from prior GST relief expiration, yet core measures remain sticky and global factors like energy shocks, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts introduce upside pressures that deter cuts. Hikes carry slim 5.5% odds given subdued growth. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March CPI (due mid-April) or employment data signaling recessionary risks, potentially prompting a 25 basis point cut.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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