Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Bank of Canada im April?
Entscheidung der Bank of Canada im April?
Keine Änderung 100.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
Erhöhung <1%
$251,926 Vol.
$251,926 Vol.
29. Apr. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
Nein
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
Nein
Keine Änderung
Ja
Erhöhung
Nein
Keine Änderung 100.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
Erhöhung <1%
$251,926 Vol.
$251,926 Vol.
29. Apr. 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$80,110 Vol.
Nein
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$50,784 Vol.
Nein
Keine Änderung
$81,691 Vol.
Ja
Erhöhung
$39,342 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$251,926Enddatum
29. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$251,926Enddatum
29. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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