Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to "Nothing" in this market, reflecting consensus that none of the specified triggers occurred by March 31, 2026, with the sole pending condition—a Texas Senate general election matchup between James Talarico and John Cornyn—now unlikely. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination on March 3, but a May 5 University of Houston poll shows Cornyn trailing challenger Ken Paxton 45%-48% ahead of their GOP primary runoff on May 26. Other triggers lapsed without action: the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18; the SAVE Act failed Senate cloture; the Iranian regime endured amid U.S. strikes; and President Trump issued no election interference national emergency declaration or Insurrection Act invocation. This skin-in-the-game assessment awaits definitive primary results for resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNichts
$338,774 Vol.
$338,774 Vol.
31. März 2026
Nichts
$338,774 Vol.
$338,774 Vol.
31. März 2026
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Iranian Regime Falls
- Fed Rate Cut
- Trump declares election interference national emergency
- Insurrection Act invoked
- SAVE Act signed into law
- James Talarico and John Cornyn candidates for the Texas Senate Election
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
This market may remain open until the results of both Texas parties' primaries are known definitively.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH-March.pdfTraders assign a 60.5% implied probability to "Nothing" in this market, reflecting consensus that none of the specified triggers occurred by March 31, 2026, with the sole pending condition—a Texas Senate general election matchup between James Talarico and John Cornyn—now unlikely. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination on March 3, but a May 5 University of Houston poll shows Cornyn trailing challenger Ken Paxton 45%-48% ahead of their GOP primary runoff on May 26. Other triggers lapsed without action: the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18; the SAVE Act failed Senate cloture; the Iranian regime endured amid U.S. strikes; and President Trump issued no election interference national emergency declaration or Insurrection Act invocation. This skin-in-the-game assessment awaits definitive primary results for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Iranian Regime Falls
- Fed Rate Cut
- Trump declares election interference national emergency
- Insurrection Act invoked
- SAVE Act signed into law
- James Talarico and John Cornyn candidates for the Texas Senate Election
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
This market may remain open until the results of both Texas parties' primaries are known definitively.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH-March.pdf
- Iranian Regime Falls
- Fed Rate Cut
- Trump declares election interference national emergency
- Insurrection Act invoked
- SAVE Act signed into law
- James Talarico and John Cornyn candidates for the Texas Senate Election
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
This market may remain open until the results of both Texas parties' primaries are known definitively.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH-March.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Mar 3, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volumen
$338,774Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 3, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Iranian Regime Falls
- Fed Rate Cut
- Trump declares election interference national emergency
- Insurrection Act invoked
- SAVE Act signed into law
- James Talarico and John Cornyn candidates for the Texas Senate Election
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
This market may remain open until the results of both Texas parties' primaries are known definitively.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH-March.pdfTraders assign a 60.5% implied probability to "Nothing" in this market, reflecting consensus that none of the specified triggers occurred by March 31, 2026, with the sole pending condition—a Texas Senate general election matchup between James Talarico and John Cornyn—now unlikely. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination on March 3, but a May 5 University of Houston poll shows Cornyn trailing challenger Ken Paxton 45%-48% ahead of their GOP primary runoff on May 26. Other triggers lapsed without action: the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18; the SAVE Act failed Senate cloture; the Iranian regime endured amid U.S. strikes; and President Trump issued no election interference national emergency declaration or Insurrection Act invocation. This skin-in-the-game assessment awaits definitive primary results for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Iranian Regime Falls
- Fed Rate Cut
- Trump declares election interference national emergency
- Insurrection Act invoked
- SAVE Act signed into law
- James Talarico and John Cornyn candidates for the Texas Senate Election
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
This market may remain open until the results of both Texas parties' primaries are known definitively.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH-March.pdf
- Iranian Regime Falls
- Fed Rate Cut
- Trump declares election interference national emergency
- Insurrection Act invoked
- SAVE Act signed into law
- James Talarico and John Cornyn candidates for the Texas Senate Election
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
This market may remain open until the results of both Texas parties' primaries are known definitively.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH-March.pdf
Volumen
$338,774Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 3, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 60.5% implied probability to "Nothing" in this market, reflecting consensus that none of the specified triggers occurred by March 31, 2026, with the sole pending condition—a Texas Senate general election matchup between James Talarico and John Cornyn—now unlikely. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination on March 3, but a May 5 University of Houston poll shows Cornyn trailing challenger Ken Paxton 45%-48% ahead of their GOP primary runoff on May 26. Other triggers lapsed without action: the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18; the SAVE Act failed Senate cloture; the Iranian regime endured amid U.S. strikes; and President Trump issued no election interference national emergency declaration or Insurrection Act invocation. This skin-in-the-game assessment awaits definitive primary results for resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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