Trader consensus favors "Nothing" at 60.5% implied probability after March 2026 passed without most triggering events, including no Federal Reserve rate cut—held steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18—no signing of the SAVE Act following its Senate cloture failure, Iran's regime surviving U.S. strikes, and no invocation of the Insurrection Act or Trump election interference emergency declaration. The sole uncertainty hinges on Texas Senate primaries: Democrat James Talarico secured nomination on March 3, but a May 5 University of Houston poll shows Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent John Cornyn 48%-45% in the GOP primary, reducing odds of a Talarico-Cornyn general election matchup. Markets await certified primary results for final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNichts
$338,774 Vol.
$338,774 Vol.
Nichts
$338,774 Vol.
$338,774 Vol.
- Iranian Regime Falls
- Fed Rate Cut
- Trump declares election interference national emergency
- Insurrection Act invoked
- SAVE Act signed into law
- James Talarico and John Cornyn candidates for the Texas Senate Election
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
This market may remain open until the results of both Texas parties' primaries are known definitively.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH-March.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Mar 3, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- Iranian Regime Falls
- Fed Rate Cut
- Trump declares election interference national emergency
- Insurrection Act invoked
- SAVE Act signed into law
- James Talarico and John Cornyn candidates for the Texas Senate Election
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
This market may remain open until the results of both Texas parties' primaries are known definitively.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH-March.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "Nothing" at 60.5% implied probability after March 2026 passed without most triggering events, including no Federal Reserve rate cut—held steady at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18—no signing of the SAVE Act following its Senate cloture failure, Iran's regime surviving U.S. strikes, and no invocation of the Insurrection Act or Trump election interference emergency declaration. The sole uncertainty hinges on Texas Senate primaries: Democrat James Talarico secured nomination on March 3, but a May 5 University of Houston poll shows Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent John Cornyn 48%-45% in the GOP primary, reducing odds of a Talarico-Cornyn general election matchup. Markets await certified primary results for final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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