**Traders assign an 82.5% probability to “Yes” on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market because mid-year developments have stayed within existing diplomatic and institutional channels without triggering any listed resolution criteria.** Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions produced statements and a preliminary June 2026 agreement to extend a ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and pursue further talks on nuclear issues and sanctions, but no U.S. invasion or regime change has occurred. Russia-Ukraine diplomacy and routine alliance management have likewise avoided new invasions of NATO territory or other escalations. Monthly versions of the series, including May, resolved to “Yes,” underscoring that incremental policy adjustments and standard electoral or leadership continuity do not meet the market’s high bar. With no scheduled votes, summits, or legal deadlines in the immediate resolution window expected to produce a presidential removal, territorial acquisition, Bitcoin threshold breach, or comparable event, the current pricing reflects sustained trader expectations of continuity through year-end.