Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 69% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of triggering events in the year's first four months, including President Trump's continued tenure amid standard executive actions, Xi Jinping's stable leadership, and no full-scale invasions such as China into Taiwan, Russia into a NATO country, or U.S. forces into Iran. The Iranian regime persists despite Strait of Hormuz tensions and related diplomatic markets, while Bitcoin holds between $10,000 and $1 million, and no Republican Senate supermajority has emerged ahead of November midterms. Recent diplomatic stasis over Taiwan and Ukraine-NATO rhetoric reinforces this calm, though midterm results or sudden escalations could shift probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNichts passiert jemals: 2026
Nichts passiert jemals: 2026
Ja
$550,806 Vol.
$550,806 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$550,806 Vol.
$550,806 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 69% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of triggering events in the year's first four months, including President Trump's continued tenure amid standard executive actions, Xi Jinping's stable leadership, and no full-scale invasions such as China into Taiwan, Russia into a NATO country, or U.S. forces into Iran. The Iranian regime persists despite Strait of Hormuz tensions and related diplomatic markets, while Bitcoin holds between $10,000 and $1 million, and no Republican Senate supermajority has emerged ahead of November midterms. Recent diplomatic stasis over Taiwan and Ukraine-NATO rhetoric reinforces this calm, though midterm results or sudden escalations could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$550,806Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 69% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of triggering events in the year's first four months, including President Trump's continued tenure amid standard executive actions, Xi Jinping's stable leadership, and no full-scale invasions such as China into Taiwan, Russia into a NATO country, or U.S. forces into Iran. The Iranian regime persists despite Strait of Hormuz tensions and related diplomatic markets, while Bitcoin holds between $10,000 and $1 million, and no Republican Senate supermajority has emerged ahead of November midterms. Recent diplomatic stasis over Taiwan and Ukraine-NATO rhetoric reinforces this calm, though midterm results or sudden escalations could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volumen
$550,806Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 69% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of triggering events in the year's first four months, including President Trump's continued tenure amid standard executive actions, Xi Jinping's stable leadership, and no full-scale invasions such as China into Taiwan, Russia into a NATO country, or U.S. forces into Iran. The Iranian regime persists despite Strait of Hormuz tensions and related diplomatic markets, while Bitcoin holds between $10,000 and $1 million, and no Republican Senate supermajority has emerged ahead of November midterms. Recent diplomatic stasis over Taiwan and Ukraine-NATO rhetoric reinforces this calm, though midterm results or sudden escalations could shift probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen