Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 62.5% for no major triggering events through December 31, 2026, reflecting the uneventful passage of the year's first five months without President Trump leaving office, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russian NATO incursion, U.S. invasion of Iran, or Iranian regime collapse. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce eased invasion risks, while limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria. Xi Jinping remains securely in power, Bitcoin hovers stably near $80,000, and no catastrophic natural disasters have struck. Uncertainties linger ahead of the Trump-Xi Taiwan summit and November midterms, where historical precedents indicate low odds of a Republican Senate supermajority despite trifecta potential.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNichts passiert jemals: 2026
Nichts passiert jemals: 2026
Ja
$559,091 Vol.
$559,091 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$559,091 Vol.
$559,091 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 62.5% for no major triggering events through December 31, 2026, reflecting the uneventful passage of the year's first five months without President Trump leaving office, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russian NATO incursion, U.S. invasion of Iran, or Iranian regime collapse. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce eased invasion risks, while limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria. Xi Jinping remains securely in power, Bitcoin hovers stably near $80,000, and no catastrophic natural disasters have struck. Uncertainties linger ahead of the Trump-Xi Taiwan summit and November midterms, where historical precedents indicate low odds of a Republican Senate supermajority despite trifecta potential.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$559,091Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 62.5% for no major triggering events through December 31, 2026, reflecting the uneventful passage of the year's first five months without President Trump leaving office, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russian NATO incursion, U.S. invasion of Iran, or Iranian regime collapse. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce eased invasion risks, while limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria. Xi Jinping remains securely in power, Bitcoin hovers stably near $80,000, and no catastrophic natural disasters have struck. Uncertainties linger ahead of the Trump-Xi Taiwan summit and November midterms, where historical precedents indicate low odds of a Republican Senate supermajority despite trifecta potential.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volumen
$559,091Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 62.5% for no major triggering events through December 31, 2026, reflecting the uneventful passage of the year's first five months without President Trump leaving office, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russian NATO incursion, U.S. invasion of Iran, or Iranian regime collapse. Recent de-escalations drove this positioning: a May 9 Ukraine Victory Day truce eased invasion risks, while limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian Hormuz targets stopped short of full invasion criteria. Xi Jinping remains securely in power, Bitcoin hovers stably near $80,000, and no catastrophic natural disasters have struck. Uncertainties linger ahead of the Trump-Xi Taiwan summit and November midterms, where historical precedents indicate low odds of a Republican Senate supermajority despite trifecta potential.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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