Trader consensus implies a 63.5% probability for "No" on "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026," driven by the scheduled U.S. midterm elections in November 2026, which will contest all 435 House seats, 33 Senate seats, and 36 governorships amid historical patterns of partisan shifts and high-stakes battles over congressional control. Following the 2024 presidential outcome, Republicans hold narrow majorities in the House and Senate, positioning Democrats for aggressive challenges in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan through early fundraising and candidate recruitment. Recent announcements of incumbents seeking re-election and initial polling averages showing competitive races reinforce expectations of campaigning, primaries, potential recounts, and fiscal deadlines such as debt ceiling negotiations or appropriations votes that typically generate volatility and preclude a truly uneventful year.