Trader consensus assigns a 69% implied probability that none of the listed triggering events will occur by year-end, reflecting the absence of major leadership changes, invasions, or extreme shocks through late May. With seven months remaining, current diplomatic postures between the U.S., China, Iran, and Russia, along with stable presidential and central bank leadership, have so far avoided the specified thresholds. The wisdom of crowds embedded in the pricing incorporates assessments of escalation risks in ongoing conflicts and domestic political dynamics, while recognizing that late-year developments such as elections, summits, or market volatility could still alter outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNichts passiert jemals: 2026
Ja
$590,249 Vol.
$590,249 Vol.
Ja
$590,249 Vol.
$590,249 Vol.
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 69% implied probability that none of the listed triggering events will occur by year-end, reflecting the absence of major leadership changes, invasions, or extreme shocks through late May. With seven months remaining, current diplomatic postures between the U.S., China, Iran, and Russia, along with stable presidential and central bank leadership, have so far avoided the specified thresholds. The wisdom of crowds embedded in the pricing incorporates assessments of escalation risks in ongoing conflicts and domestic political dynamics, while recognizing that late-year developments such as elections, summits, or market volatility could still alter outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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