Trader consensus implies a 73% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per NOAA National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS moment magnitude, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst from NASA CNEOS through mid-May. April's largest events—M7.4 quakes off Japan and Indonesia—fell well short of thresholds, while 47 volcanoes erupted at lower VEI levels and March fireballs over Ohio and Texas measured under 10kt. Emerging El Niño conditions (82% NOAA chance by summer) and Colorado State University's below-normal Atlantic hurricane outlook reduce peak-season risks from June through November; monitor NHC advisories and USGS seismic updates for shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
$218,251 Vol.
$218,251 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$218,251 Vol.
$218,251 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 73% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per NOAA National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS moment magnitude, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst from NASA CNEOS through mid-May. April's largest events—M7.4 quakes off Japan and Indonesia—fell well short of thresholds, while 47 volcanoes erupted at lower VEI levels and March fireballs over Ohio and Texas measured under 10kt. Emerging El Niño conditions (82% NOAA chance by summer) and Colorado State University's below-normal Atlantic hurricane outlook reduce peak-season risks from June through November; monitor NHC advisories and USGS seismic updates for shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$218,251Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 73% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per NOAA National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS moment magnitude, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst from NASA CNEOS through mid-May. April's largest events—M7.4 quakes off Japan and Indonesia—fell well short of thresholds, while 47 volcanoes erupted at lower VEI levels and March fireballs over Ohio and Texas measured under 10kt. Emerging El Niño conditions (82% NOAA chance by summer) and Colorado State University's below-normal Atlantic hurricane outlook reduce peak-season risks from June through November; monitor NHC advisories and USGS seismic updates for shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$218,251Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 73% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per NOAA National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS moment magnitude, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst from NASA CNEOS through mid-May. April's largest events—M7.4 quakes off Japan and Indonesia—fell well short of thresholds, while 47 volcanoes erupted at lower VEI levels and March fireballs over Ohio and Texas measured under 10kt. Emerging El Niño conditions (82% NOAA chance by summer) and Colorado State University's below-normal Atlantic hurricane outlook reduce peak-season risks from June through November; monitor NHC advisories and USGS seismic updates for shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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