Trader consensus implies a 70.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through late March despite elevated tornado activity—including a rare EF5 in the Midwest—and above-average early wildfires scorching 1.4 million acres amid western snow droughts. The market's strict criteria demand extremes: a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale; a global M8.5+ earthquake per USGS; VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program; or 10kt+ meteor airburst per NASA. Historical baselines are low—M8.5+ quakes average once per decade, US Cat5 landfalls every few years—bolstered by NOAA's average 2026 Atlantic outlook (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid neutral ENSO transition. Key watch: June-November hurricane season for potential shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
$188,992 Vol.
$188,992 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$188,992 Vol.
$188,992 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 70.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through late March despite elevated tornado activity—including a rare EF5 in the Midwest—and above-average early wildfires scorching 1.4 million acres amid western snow droughts. The market's strict criteria demand extremes: a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale; a global M8.5+ earthquake per USGS; VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program; or 10kt+ meteor airburst per NASA. Historical baselines are low—M8.5+ quakes average once per decade, US Cat5 landfalls every few years—bolstered by NOAA's average 2026 Atlantic outlook (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid neutral ENSO transition. Key watch: June-November hurricane season for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$188,992Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 70.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through late March despite elevated tornado activity—including a rare EF5 in the Midwest—and above-average early wildfires scorching 1.4 million acres amid western snow droughts. The market's strict criteria demand extremes: a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale; a global M8.5+ earthquake per USGS; VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program; or 10kt+ meteor airburst per NASA. Historical baselines are low—M8.5+ quakes average once per decade, US Cat5 landfalls every few years—bolstered by NOAA's average 2026 Atlantic outlook (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid neutral ENSO transition. Key watch: June-November hurricane season for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$188,992Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 70.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through late March despite elevated tornado activity—including a rare EF5 in the Midwest—and above-average early wildfires scorching 1.4 million acres amid western snow droughts. The market's strict criteria demand extremes: a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale; a global M8.5+ earthquake per USGS; VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program; or 10kt+ meteor airburst per NASA. Historical baselines are low—M8.5+ quakes average once per decade, US Cat5 landfalls every few years—bolstered by NOAA's average 2026 Atlantic outlook (11-16 named storms, 2-4 majors) amid neutral ENSO transition. Key watch: June-November hurricane season for potential shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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