No leads at 73.5% because the market resolves Yes only for rare extremes—a Category 5 hurricane (157+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) making U.S. landfall, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI-6+ volcanic eruption, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor impact—none of which have occurred in the first half of 2026. Historical baselines show Category 5 U.S. landfalls averaging fewer than one per decade, 8.5+ quakes occurring roughly once every few years globally, and VEI-6+ eruptions even less frequently. With six months remaining and current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated signals for these thresholds, trader consensus reflects the low baseline probability of any single qualifying event materializing before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
$222,056 Vol.
$222,056 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$222,056 Vol.
$222,056 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No leads at 73.5% because the market resolves Yes only for rare extremes—a Category 5 hurricane (157+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) making U.S. landfall, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI-6+ volcanic eruption, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor impact—none of which have occurred in the first half of 2026. Historical baselines show Category 5 U.S. landfalls averaging fewer than one per decade, 8.5+ quakes occurring roughly once every few years globally, and VEI-6+ eruptions even less frequently. With six months remaining and current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated signals for these thresholds, trader consensus reflects the low baseline probability of any single qualifying event materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$222,056Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No leads at 73.5% because the market resolves Yes only for rare extremes—a Category 5 hurricane (157+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) making U.S. landfall, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI-6+ volcanic eruption, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor impact—none of which have occurred in the first half of 2026. Historical baselines show Category 5 U.S. landfalls averaging fewer than one per decade, 8.5+ quakes occurring roughly once every few years globally, and VEI-6+ eruptions even less frequently. With six months remaining and current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated signals for these thresholds, trader consensus reflects the low baseline probability of any single qualifying event materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$222,056Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No leads at 73.5% because the market resolves Yes only for rare extremes—a Category 5 hurricane (157+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) making U.S. landfall, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI-6+ volcanic eruption, or a 10-kiloton+ meteor impact—none of which have occurred in the first half of 2026. Historical baselines show Category 5 U.S. landfalls averaging fewer than one per decade, 8.5+ quakes occurring roughly once every few years globally, and VEI-6+ eruptions even less frequently. With six months remaining and current NOAA, USGS, and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated signals for these thresholds, trader consensus reflects the low baseline probability of any single qualifying event materializing before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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