Recent global surface temperature observations from agencies including NOAA and NASA place the May 2026 anomaly near the center of the 1.10–1.14°C range above the pre-industrial baseline, reflecting the dominant influence of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend tempered by residual La Niña cooling effects that persisted into early 2026. Monthly data through February 2026 hovered around 1.18°C (20th-century reference), with ENSO-neutral to weak El Niño transition conditions now emerging but not yet substantially amplifying May values. This positioning aligns with historical analogs for similar ENSO phases and the current measurement methodology using blended land-ocean datasets. A stronger-than-forecast El Niño intensification or upward revision in preliminary May readings could shift the outcome higher, though model consensus indicates limited near-term deviation from the observed range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.1%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
10. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.1%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
10. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
$61,016 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,264 Vol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,111 Vol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,001 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,400 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,403 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature observations from agencies including NOAA and NASA place the May 2026 anomaly near the center of the 1.10–1.14°C range above the pre-industrial baseline, reflecting the dominant influence of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend tempered by residual La Niña cooling effects that persisted into early 2026. Monthly data through February 2026 hovered around 1.18°C (20th-century reference), with ENSO-neutral to weak El Niño transition conditions now emerging but not yet substantially amplifying May values. This positioning aligns with historical analogs for similar ENSO phases and the current measurement methodology using blended land-ocean datasets. A stronger-than-forecast El Niño intensification or upward revision in preliminary May readings could shift the outcome higher, though model consensus indicates limited near-term deviation from the observed range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volumen
$192,174Enddatum
10. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature observations from agencies including NOAA and NASA place the May 2026 anomaly near the center of the 1.10–1.14°C range above the pre-industrial baseline, reflecting the dominant influence of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend tempered by residual La Niña cooling effects that persisted into early 2026. Monthly data through February 2026 hovered around 1.18°C (20th-century reference), with ENSO-neutral to weak El Niño transition conditions now emerging but not yet substantially amplifying May values. This positioning aligns with historical analogs for similar ENSO phases and the current measurement methodology using blended land-ocean datasets. A stronger-than-forecast El Niño intensification or upward revision in preliminary May readings could shift the outcome higher, though model consensus indicates limited near-term deviation from the observed range.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$192,174Enddatum
10. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global surface temperature observations from agencies including NOAA and NASA place the May 2026 anomaly near the center of the 1.10–1.14°C range above the pre-industrial baseline, reflecting the dominant influence of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend tempered by residual La Niña cooling effects that persisted into early 2026. Monthly data through February 2026 hovered around 1.18°C (20th-century reference), with ENSO-neutral to weak El Niño transition conditions now emerging but not yet substantially amplifying May values. This positioning aligns with historical analogs for similar ENSO phases and the current measurement methodology using blended land-ocean datasets. A stronger-than-forecast El Niño intensification or upward revision in preliminary May readings could shift the outcome higher, though model consensus indicates limited near-term deviation from the observed range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen