Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of megathrust events and lack of precursory signals in current seismic data. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records show only five verified M9+ quakes globally since 1900, with typical recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries on specific subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Aleutian arcs. Recent activity, including Japan's M7.6 quake in January 2024 and a M7.4 off Taiwan in the same month, released localized stress without elevating M9+ risks, as confirmed by real-time USGS monitoring. No anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock patterns indicate imminent rupture, aligning with models estimating annual global M9+ odds below 2%. Ongoing seismic networks provide continuous updates, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert9.0 oder höher Erdbeben vor 2027?
9.0 oder höher Erdbeben vor 2027?
Ja
$162,665 Vol.
$162,665 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
$162,665 Vol.
$162,665 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of megathrust events and lack of precursory signals in current seismic data. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records show only five verified M9+ quakes globally since 1900, with typical recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries on specific subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Aleutian arcs. Recent activity, including Japan's M7.6 quake in January 2024 and a M7.4 off Taiwan in the same month, released localized stress without elevating M9+ risks, as confirmed by real-time USGS monitoring. No anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock patterns indicate imminent rupture, aligning with models estimating annual global M9+ odds below 2%. Ongoing seismic networks provide continuous updates, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$162,665Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of megathrust events and lack of precursory signals in current seismic data. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records show only five verified M9+ quakes globally since 1900, with typical recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries on specific subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Aleutian arcs. Recent activity, including Japan's M7.6 quake in January 2024 and a M7.4 off Taiwan in the same month, released localized stress without elevating M9+ risks, as confirmed by real-time USGS monitoring. No anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock patterns indicate imminent rupture, aligning with models estimating annual global M9+ odds below 2%. Ongoing seismic networks provide continuous updates, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$162,665Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of megathrust events and lack of precursory signals in current seismic data. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records show only five verified M9+ quakes globally since 1900, with typical recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries on specific subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Aleutian arcs. Recent activity, including Japan's M7.6 quake in January 2024 and a M7.4 off Taiwan in the same month, released localized stress without elevating M9+ risks, as confirmed by real-time USGS monitoring. No anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock patterns indicate imminent rupture, aligning with models estimating annual global M9+ odds below 2%. Ongoing seismic networks provide continuous updates, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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