Name: Erdbeben der Stärke 9,0 oder höher vor 2027?
Start: 2025-12-08T23:28:19.342975Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Erdbeben der Stärke 9,0 oder höher vor 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI kündigt an, dass es AGI vor 2027 erreicht hat?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Wird xAI bis zum 30. Juni ein #1 KI-Modell haben?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird KI vor 2027 einer Straftat angeklagt werden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rückgang der KI-Branche bis zum 31. Dezember 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.

Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.

Wird ein dLLM das führende KI-Modell vor 2027 sein?

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Wird OpenAI am 31. März das beste KI-Modell für Programmierung haben?

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Wird Google das erste Unternehmen sein, dessen KI-Modell bis zum 30. Juni 2026 eine Bewertung von 1500 in der Chatbot Arena erreicht?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new AI data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the United States is passed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying moratorium go into effect against the construction of any facility described in the legal text as an AI data center, AI compute facility, AI training/inference data center, or similar. Any moratorium that applies to all “data centers” will also qualify.

The signing of such a bill will qualify regardless of the date such a moratorium actually comes into effect, or whether an injunction is put into place against qualifying legislation. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird ein Moratorium für KI-Rechenzentren vor 2027 verabschiedet?

Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.

A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.

Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation. 

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public. 

A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Meta-„Mango“-Modell bis zum 30. Juni veröffentlicht?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Google Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on FrontierMath Benchmark

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Google+Gemini+Parlay.pdf

Google Gemini Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird OpenAI bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 an die Börse gehen?

OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar recently suggested that OpenAI would be supportive of a government backstop for its investments in AI infrastructure including chips and data centers. Friar and Open AI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman later backtracked on that statement. You can read more about that here: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/tech/openai-backtracks-government-support-chip-investments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI or any financial lender or intermediary involved in providing debt financing to OpenAI receives a U.S. federal government backstop for any debt-transaction undertaken primarily for the benefit of OpenAI’s investments in AI infrastructure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A backstop is defined as any explicit or legally binding loan guarantee, insurance, or equivalent financial instrument through which the U.S. federal government assumes or commits to assume partial or full repayment risk on OpenAI debt.

Tax credits, depreciation benefits, or grants not tied to a specific debt transaction will not qualify. 

The debt transaction which receives a government backstop must be primarily aimed at the development, building, or manufacturing of AI infrastructure. 

The primary source of resolution will be information from Open AI and the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Erhält OpenAI vor Juli eine staatliche Absicherung für die Infrastruktur?

In November, a song reported to be the product of an AI-generated artist reached the top of the Billboard's Country Digital Song Sales chart. (see: https://www.barrons.com/news/ai-country-song-rollicks-to-the-top-of-us-sales-chart-7fe99e8a)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song widely reported to be entirely AI-generated reaches number 1 on any Billboard chart between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A song will be considered fully AI-generated if all vocals, musical composition, and production elements are created primarily by AI. Human actions such as prompting, mixing, and editing will not disqualify a song provided all audio content originates from AI.

Songs reported to have used AI-generated lyrics but not AI-generated voices, AI-assisted human vocals or instruments, or remixes, mash-ups, or covers using human-performed components will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird ein weiteres KI-generiertes Lied bis zum 30. Juni Platz 1 in einer Billboard-Hitliste erreichen?

is market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Pinterest will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Pinterest will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Pinterest or OpenAi, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wird OpenAI Pinterest im Jahr 2026 übernehmen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates advertisements into ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-4.1, GPT-5, or any successor general-purpose GPT model made publicly available by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, model, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

GPT-Anzeigen bis zum 31. März?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if USD.AI officially launches a governance token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from USD.AI (https://x.com/USDai_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wird USD.AI bis zum 31. März einen Token herausbringen?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Based’s cumulative Polymarket revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the Based revenue bar chart available at https://dune.com/datadashboards/based-statistics, using the “Cumulative Revenue” value displayed when hovering over the daily data point.

This market will resolve as soon as the cumulative revenue shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for Dec 31, 2026 is finalized and no earlier value has met or exceeded that threshold.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on on-chain data, Based official communication, or other reliable crypto sources.

Wird der Umsatz von Based Polymarket vor 2027 1 Million US-Dollar erreichen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.

Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Grok 5 bis zum 31. März 2026 veröffentlicht?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

Wird Google Gemini 3 bis zum 31. Januar mindestens 40 % in Humanity’s Last Exam erreichen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.

Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1 similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Grok 4.20 bis zum 20. April veröffentlicht?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, xAI releases a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any xAI dLMM will be considered to be released if it is launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.

A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird xAI bis zum 30. Juni ein dLLM veröffentlichen?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Wird Axiom bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 einen Token herausgeben?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Wird GPT-6 bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 veröffentlicht?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

Erdbeben der Stärke 9,0 oder höher vor 2027?

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