Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 15°C (23%) as the highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which cluster around 14–16°C amid mild spring conditions following a recent cool spell. Observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service show daytime highs in the low teens over the past week, with light southerly winds potentially boosting temps slightly, though a possible northern airflow could cap them at 12–13°C. Higher outcomes like 17°C+ (7%) hinge on unexpected intensification of warm advection, while sub-10°C risks (4%) depend on a sudden cold front; model spreads reflect this uncertainty, with daily updates expected from MGM and NOAA analogs. Historical March norms (12–15°C) align with the fragmented odds, underscoring spring volatility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 31. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 31. März?
15°C 23%
12°C 9%
8°C oder weniger 8%
9°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
8°C oder weniger
8%
9°C
8%
10°C
5%
11°C
7%
12°C
9%
13°C
5%
14°C
7%
15°C
23%
16°C
7%
17°C
7%
18°C oder höher
5%
15°C 23%
12°C 9%
8°C oder weniger 8%
9°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
8°C oder weniger
$639 Vol.
8%
9°C
$145 Vol.
8%
10°C
$299 Vol.
5%
11°C
$0 Vol.
7%
12°C
$0 Vol.
9%
13°C
$5 Vol.
5%
14°C
$0 Vol.
7%
15°C
$10 Vol.
23%
16°C
$0 Vol.
7%
17°C
$0 Vol.
7%
18°C oder höher
$30 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 15°C (23%) as the highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which cluster around 14–16°C amid mild spring conditions following a recent cool spell. Observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service show daytime highs in the low teens over the past week, with light southerly winds potentially boosting temps slightly, though a possible northern airflow could cap them at 12–13°C. Higher outcomes like 17°C+ (7%) hinge on unexpected intensification of warm advection, while sub-10°C risks (4%) depend on a sudden cold front; model spreads reflect this uncertainty, with daily updates expected from MGM and NOAA analogs. Historical March norms (12–15°C) align with the fragmented odds, underscoring spring volatility.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volumen
$1,129Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 15°C (23%) as the highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which cluster around 14–16°C amid mild spring conditions following a recent cool spell. Observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service show daytime highs in the low teens over the past week, with light southerly winds potentially boosting temps slightly, though a possible northern airflow could cap them at 12–13°C. Higher outcomes like 17°C+ (7%) hinge on unexpected intensification of warm advection, while sub-10°C risks (4%) depend on a sudden cold front; model spreads reflect this uncertainty, with daily updates expected from MGM and NOAA analogs. Historical March norms (12–15°C) align with the fragmented odds, underscoring spring volatility.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,129Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 15°C (23%) as the highest temperature in Istanbul on March 31, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which cluster around 14–16°C amid mild spring conditions following a recent cool spell. Observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service show daytime highs in the low teens over the past week, with light southerly winds potentially boosting temps slightly, though a possible northern airflow could cap them at 12–13°C. Higher outcomes like 17°C+ (7%) hinge on unexpected intensification of warm advection, while sub-10°C risks (4%) depend on a sudden cold front; model spreads reflect this uncertainty, with daily updates expected from MGM and NOAA analogs. Historical March norms (12–15°C) align with the fragmented odds, underscoring spring volatility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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