Iran maintains firm sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict centered on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, with recent exchanges limited to naval interdiction, drone strikes, and targeted US strikes on IRGC coastal infrastructure rather than ground operations. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian officials continue asserting full administrative control, while a planned Oman-hosted regional meeting on route arrangements was postponed and no coalition amphibious or territorial advances have been reported. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with implied probabilities below 3% for near-term dates, given the emphasis on maritime enforcement, sanctions, and diplomatic maneuvering over island-level territorial shifts. Escalation involving direct occupation attempts or major realignments in Gulf alliances could alter dynamics within the resolution windows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertInsel Hormus nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle durch...?
Insel Hormus nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle durch...?
$71,109 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
1%
$71,109 Vol.
30. September
$832 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict centered on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, with recent exchanges limited to naval interdiction, drone strikes, and targeted US strikes on IRGC coastal infrastructure rather than ground operations. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian officials continue asserting full administrative control, while a planned Oman-hosted regional meeting on route arrangements was postponed and no coalition amphibious or territorial advances have been reported. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with implied probabilities below 3% for near-term dates, given the emphasis on maritime enforcement, sanctions, and diplomatic maneuvering over island-level territorial shifts. Escalation involving direct occupation attempts or major realignments in Gulf alliances could alter dynamics within the resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volumen
$71,109Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict centered on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, with recent exchanges limited to naval interdiction, drone strikes, and targeted US strikes on IRGC coastal infrastructure rather than ground operations. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian officials continue asserting full administrative control, while a planned Oman-hosted regional meeting on route arrangements was postponed and no coalition amphibious or territorial advances have been reported. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with implied probabilities below 3% for near-term dates, given the emphasis on maritime enforcement, sanctions, and diplomatic maneuvering over island-level territorial shifts. Escalation involving direct occupation attempts or major realignments in Gulf alliances could alter dynamics within the resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$71,109Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict centered on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, with recent exchanges limited to naval interdiction, drone strikes, and targeted US strikes on IRGC coastal infrastructure rather than ground operations. As of mid-September 2026, Iranian officials continue asserting full administrative control, while a planned Oman-hosted regional meeting on route arrangements was postponed and no coalition amphibious or territorial advances have been reported. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with implied probabilities below 3% for near-term dates, given the emphasis on maritime enforcement, sanctions, and diplomatic maneuvering over island-level territorial shifts. Escalation involving direct occupation attempts or major realignments in Gulf alliances could alter dynamics within the resolution windows.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen