Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam Island in July 2026 and related targets on nearby Larak and Qeshm islands, have kept the island in focus for traders. Iranian forces, including IRGC units, maintain operational presence with naval and defensive infrastructure, as affirmed in early September statements asserting firm control over the strait and southern islands. Tehran has reinforced positions across the Hormuz defensive line amid the broader conflict that escalated in February 2026, while environmental fallout from strikes has affected coastal areas without altering territorial administration. No reports indicate occupation, handover, or establishment of alternative authority on Hengam itself. Trader-implied probabilities remain low for loss of control by late September, reflecting the distinction between bombardment and sustained shifts in primary governmental or military authority.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertInsel Hengam nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle von...?
$208,434 Vol.
30. September
1%
$208,434 Vol.
30. September
1%
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Abwickler
0x65070BE91..."No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam Island in July 2026 and related targets on nearby Larak and Qeshm islands, have kept the island in focus for traders. Iranian forces, including IRGC units, maintain operational presence with naval and defensive infrastructure, as affirmed in early September statements asserting firm control over the strait and southern islands. Tehran has reinforced positions across the Hormuz defensive line amid the broader conflict that escalated in February 2026, while environmental fallout from strikes has affected coastal areas without altering territorial administration. No reports indicate occupation, handover, or establishment of alternative authority on Hengam itself. Trader-implied probabilities remain low for loss of control by late September, reflecting the distinction between bombardment and sustained shifts in primary governmental or military authority.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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