Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through its Revolutionary Guard Corps presence, despite longstanding UAE territorial claims dating to the 1971 seizure and a 1971 memorandum of understanding that left sovereignty unresolved. US strikes targeted Iranian sites on the island and nearby Greater Tunb during the 2026 conflict, aiming to degrade coastal defenses and missile capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, yet Iranian forces retained positions afterward. Diplomatic pressure continues via GCC and Arab League statements urging resolution through negotiation or the International Court of Justice, alongside Iranian counter-statements reaffirming sovereignty and rejecting external claims. These factors shape trader assessments of the low likelihood of any near-term shift in effective control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertDie Insel Abu Musa steht nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle von...?
Die Insel Abu Musa steht nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle von...?
$96,560 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
2%
$96,560 Vol.
30. September
$3,162 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through its Revolutionary Guard Corps presence, despite longstanding UAE territorial claims dating to the 1971 seizure and a 1971 memorandum of understanding that left sovereignty unresolved. US strikes targeted Iranian sites on the island and nearby Greater Tunb during the 2026 conflict, aiming to degrade coastal defenses and missile capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, yet Iranian forces retained positions afterward. Diplomatic pressure continues via GCC and Arab League statements urging resolution through negotiation or the International Court of Justice, alongside Iranian counter-statements reaffirming sovereignty and rejecting external claims. These factors shape trader assessments of the low likelihood of any near-term shift in effective control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volumen
$96,560Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through its Revolutionary Guard Corps presence, despite longstanding UAE territorial claims dating to the 1971 seizure and a 1971 memorandum of understanding that left sovereignty unresolved. US strikes targeted Iranian sites on the island and nearby Greater Tunb during the 2026 conflict, aiming to degrade coastal defenses and missile capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, yet Iranian forces retained positions afterward. Diplomatic pressure continues via GCC and Arab League statements urging resolution through negotiation or the International Court of Justice, alongside Iranian counter-statements reaffirming sovereignty and rejecting external claims. These factors shape trader assessments of the low likelihood of any near-term shift in effective control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$96,560Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through its Revolutionary Guard Corps presence, despite longstanding UAE territorial claims dating to the 1971 seizure and a 1971 memorandum of understanding that left sovereignty unresolved. US strikes targeted Iranian sites on the island and nearby Greater Tunb during the 2026 conflict, aiming to degrade coastal defenses and missile capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, yet Iranian forces retained positions afterward. Diplomatic pressure continues via GCC and Arab League statements urging resolution through negotiation or the International Court of Justice, alongside Iranian counter-statements reaffirming sovereignty and rejecting external claims. These factors shape trader assessments of the low likelihood of any near-term shift in effective control.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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