Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026, centered on Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and Iranian oil infrastructure, have shaped trader views on islands including Farsi. U.S. strikes have targeted nearby positions such as Larak, Qeshm, and coastal sites in Sirik and Minab, with reports of explosions and IRGC missile responses through early September. Farsi Island hosts an IRGC Navy base historically used for monitoring and operations in the Persian Gulf, yet no verified developments indicate a shift in primary governmental or military control to another state or force. Iran continues to assert sovereignty over its Gulf islands amid the conflict, while market-implied probabilities for any loss of control by late September remain low, reflecting the absence of occupation or handover scenarios in current reporting. Scheduled diplomatic or military escalations could still influence outcomes before resolution dates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFarsi-Insel nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle von...?
Farsi-Insel nicht mehr unter iranischer Kontrolle von...?
$197,815 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September
1%
$197,815 Vol.
30. September
$20,545 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026, centered on Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and Iranian oil infrastructure, have shaped trader views on islands including Farsi. U.S. strikes have targeted nearby positions such as Larak, Qeshm, and coastal sites in Sirik and Minab, with reports of explosions and IRGC missile responses through early September. Farsi Island hosts an IRGC Navy base historically used for monitoring and operations in the Persian Gulf, yet no verified developments indicate a shift in primary governmental or military control to another state or force. Iran continues to assert sovereignty over its Gulf islands amid the conflict, while market-implied probabilities for any loss of control by late September remain low, reflecting the absence of occupation or handover scenarios in current reporting. Scheduled diplomatic or military escalations could still influence outcomes before resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$197,815Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026, centered on Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and Iranian oil infrastructure, have shaped trader views on islands including Farsi. U.S. strikes have targeted nearby positions such as Larak, Qeshm, and coastal sites in Sirik and Minab, with reports of explosions and IRGC missile responses through early September. Farsi Island hosts an IRGC Navy base historically used for monitoring and operations in the Persian Gulf, yet no verified developments indicate a shift in primary governmental or military control to another state or force. Iran continues to assert sovereignty over its Gulf islands amid the conflict, while market-implied probabilities for any loss of control by late September remain low, reflecting the absence of occupation or handover scenarios in current reporting. Scheduled diplomatic or military escalations could still influence outcomes before resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$197,815Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions since February 2026, centered on Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes and Iranian oil infrastructure, have shaped trader views on islands including Farsi. U.S. strikes have targeted nearby positions such as Larak, Qeshm, and coastal sites in Sirik and Minab, with reports of explosions and IRGC missile responses through early September. Farsi Island hosts an IRGC Navy base historically used for monitoring and operations in the Persian Gulf, yet no verified developments indicate a shift in primary governmental or military control to another state or force. Iran continues to assert sovereignty over its Gulf islands amid the conflict, while market-implied probabilities for any loss of control by late September remain low, reflecting the absence of occupation or handover scenarios in current reporting. Scheduled diplomatic or military escalations could still influence outcomes before resolution dates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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