Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) late-April Copom meeting, building on the March 18 initiation of easing with a cautious 25 basis point cut to 14.75% after prolonged holds amid an oil shock. Disinflation persists—February 2026 IPCA eased to 3.81% annually, with March IPCA-15 at 3.90%—while economic activity cools, supporting further monetary accommodation despite Focus survey inflation expectations rising to 4.1% for 2026. No-change odds at 15% reflect Copom minutes' emphasis on global uncertainties, with hikes near zero; upcoming IPCA data and April Focus updates loom as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSenkung 84%
Keine Änderung 15%
Erhöhung <1%
$204,036 Vol.
$204,036 Vol.
Erhöhung
1%
Keine Änderung
15%
Senkung
84%
Senkung 84%
Keine Änderung 15%
Erhöhung <1%
$204,036 Vol.
$204,036 Vol.
Erhöhung
1%
Keine Änderung
15%
Senkung
84%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) late-April Copom meeting, building on the March 18 initiation of easing with a cautious 25 basis point cut to 14.75% after prolonged holds amid an oil shock. Disinflation persists—February 2026 IPCA eased to 3.81% annually, with March IPCA-15 at 3.90%—while economic activity cools, supporting further monetary accommodation despite Focus survey inflation expectations rising to 4.1% for 2026. No-change odds at 15% reflect Copom minutes' emphasis on global uncertainties, with hikes near zero; upcoming IPCA data and April Focus updates loom as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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