Traders on Polymarket price a March monthly inflation rate of 3.1–3.3% at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting consensus economist forecasts amid ongoing disinflation under President Milei's austerity measures. February's 2.4% print—down from January's 2.7% and well below prior double-digits—bolstered optimism, driven by fiscal surplus achievement and monetary tightening, yet upside risks from regulated utility price adjustments and a crawling peso peg have concentrated sentiment in the mid-3% range. Lower bins trail due to base effects fading, while higher outcomes see minimal support absent shocks. INDEC's official release, expected mid-April, remains the key catalyst, with traders wagering on sustained deceleration versus potential rebound pressures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertArgentina Monthly Inflation - March
Argentina Monthly Inflation - March
3.1–3.3% 67%
2.8–3.0% 15%
2.5–2.7% 9%
3.4–3.6% 3.3%
$11,345 Vol.
$11,345 Vol.
≤2.1%
<1%
2.2–2.4%
1%
2.5–2.7%
9%
2.8–3.0%
15%
3.1–3.3%
67%
3.4–3.6%
3%
3.7%+
2%
3.1–3.3% 67%
2.8–3.0% 15%
2.5–2.7% 9%
3.4–3.6% 3.3%
$11,345 Vol.
$11,345 Vol.
≤2.1%
<1%
2.2–2.4%
1%
2.5–2.7%
9%
2.8–3.0%
15%
3.1–3.3%
67%
3.4–3.6%
3%
3.7%+
2%
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in March 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on April 14, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 17, 2026, 10:40 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders on Polymarket price a March monthly inflation rate of 3.1–3.3% at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting consensus economist forecasts amid ongoing disinflation under President Milei's austerity measures. February's 2.4% print—down from January's 2.7% and well below prior double-digits—bolstered optimism, driven by fiscal surplus achievement and monetary tightening, yet upside risks from regulated utility price adjustments and a crawling peso peg have concentrated sentiment in the mid-3% range. Lower bins trail due to base effects fading, while higher outcomes see minimal support absent shocks. INDEC's official release, expected mid-April, remains the key catalyst, with traders wagering on sustained deceleration versus potential rebound pressures.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen