This is a market on who will be the next Prime Minister of Canada.

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

2025 NCAA Tournament Winner

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Yoon Suk Yeol ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between March 20 and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Yoon Suk Yeol is impeached by the National Assembly, however the Constitutional Court does not uphold the impeachment by this market's end date, it will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

For this market to resolve to "Yes" Yoon Suk Yeol must have actually ceased to be President of South Korea before this market's end date; an announcement that Yoon will resign at a later time will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between March 31, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

Israel military action against Iran before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose a general tariff on imports into the United States on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A general tariff that includes item or country specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States is announced.

Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.


Will Trump announce a general Tariff on imports on April 2?

Donald Trump is expected to implement a fresh round of tariffs on April 2, 2025. It is anticipated he will make an announcement he has called "the big one." You can read more about that here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-april-2-liberation-day/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is explicitly about Trump's main Tariff announcement on April 2, 2025. This market will be updated reflect precisely which event that is when Trump's schedule for that day becomes available on Roll Call (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

Warning: The order book will not be cleared before this clarification.

The resolution source will be video of the press conference.

What will Trump say during Tariff event on April 2?

Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel are running for a 10-year term on the Wisconsin Supreme Court on April 1, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory for Susan Crawford.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Susan Crawford and the candidate that receives second-most votes. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receive by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If Susan Crawford does not win the most votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Wisconsin has certified the vote for this race.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.


Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford Margin of victory?

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for April 5 at 8:49PM ET:
If the Houston win, the market will resolve to “Houston”.
If the Duke win, the market will resolve to “Duke”.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Houston vs. Duke

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for April 5 at 6:09PM ET:
If the Florida win, the market will resolve to “Florida”.
If the Auburn win, the market will resolve to “Auburn”.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Florida vs. Auburn

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between March 31, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an the US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

US military action against Iran before July?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Mike Waltz will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of Waltz’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.


Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.

An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark , however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between March 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Elon Musk # of tweets Mar 28- Apr 4?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This is a market on predicting which political party will secure the most seats in the upcoming Canadian election.

Which Party wins most seats in Canadian election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. 

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. 

Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.

The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's May 2025 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for May 6 - 7, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Fed decision in May?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump between December 19, 2024, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.