Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

US recession in 2025?

64%

chance

$2m Vol.

Florida vs. Houston

52%

Florida

$47k Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

Mark Carney

72%

Pierre Poilievre

29%

Chrystia Freeland

<1%

Jagmeet Singh

<1%

Justin Trudeau

<1%

$35m Vol.

Fed decision in May?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

29%

No change

67%

25+ bps increase

<1%

$15m Vol.

monthly

Will Trump remove tariff on China before May?

chance

$99k Vol.

Next president of South Korea?

Lee Jae-myung

80%

Kim Moon-soo

Han Dong-hoon

Lee Jun-seok

Ahn Cheol-soo

Hong Joon-pyo

Oh Se-hoon

Yoo Seong-min

<1%

Won Hee-ryong

<1%

Kim Dong-yeon

<1%

Kim Kyoung-soo

<1%

Kim Boo-kyum

<1%

Na Kyung-won

<1%

Lee Nak-yon

<1%

Cho Kuk

<1%

$2m Vol.

Which country will Trump lower tariffs on first?

Israel

81%

Vietnam

10%

Argentina

China

Mexico

None by July 31

Canada

South Korea

Japan

<1%

India

<1%

$88k Vol.

Elon out of Trump administration before July?

33%

chance

$486k Vol.

Will Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?

38%

chance

$16k Vol.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

1 (25 bps)

2 (50 bps)

12%

3 (75 bps)

19%

4 (100 bps)

19%

5 (125 bps)

13%

6 (150 bps)

7 (175 bps)

8 or more (200+ bps)

12%

$5m Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

24%

chance

$6m Vol.

Who will acquire TikTok?

Larry Ellison

30%

Oracle

26%

Tim Stokely

17%

Amazon

13%

Microsoft

12%

Perplexity AI

Alexis Ohanian

Frank McCourt

Walmart

Elon Musk

Bobby Kotick

MrBeast

Meta

Steve Mnuchin

AppLovin

X (Twitter)

Sam Altman

Rumble

$2m Vol.

Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose?

chance

$100k Vol.

US military action against Iran before July?

26%

chance

$121k Vol.

US GDP growth in Q1 2025?

>2%

2% - 1%

25%

1% - 0%

37%

0% - (-1%)

18%

-1% - (-2%)

10%

<-2%

$239k Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

chance

$2m Vol.

Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?

70%

chance

$880k Vol.

U.S. recession before May 2025?

chance

$656k Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Australia?

Anthony Albanese

70%

Peter Dutton

30%

Jim Chalmers

<1%

Tanya Plibersek

<1%

$2m Vol.

Which Party wins most seats in Canadian election?

Liberal Party

72%

Conservative Party

29%

Bloc Québécois

<1%

New Democratic Party

<1%

Green Party

<1%

People's Party

<1%

Other

<1%

$7m Vol.

(Old) Romania Election

Other (incl. Georgescu)

99%

Nicolae Ciucă

<1%

Elena Lasconi

<1%

Mircea Geoană

<1%

Marcel Ciolacu

<1%

George Simion

<1%

$263m Vol.

Romania Presidential Election Winner

Nicușor Dan

39%

George Simion

31%

Victor Ponta

15%

Crin Antonescu

13%

Elena Lasconi

Călin Georgescu

Daniel Funeriu

Ilie Bolojan

<1%

Anamaria Gavrilă

<1%

Silviu Predoiu

<1%

Other

<1%

Marcel Ciolacu

<1%

Ana Birchall

<1%

Nicolae Ciucă

<1%

Mircea Geoană

<1%

Hunor Kelemen

<1%

Teodor Nițulescu

<1%

Cristian Sima

<1%

Anton Pisaroglu

<1%

Diana Șoșoacă

<1%

Cristian-Vasile Terheș

<1%

Marcela-Lavinia Șandru

<1%

John-Ion Banu-Muscel

<1%

Sebastian-Constantin Popescu

<1%

$112m Vol.

NBA Champion

Oklahoma City Thunder

33%

Boston Celtics

29%

Cleveland Cavaliers

12%

Los Angeles Lakers

Golden State Warriors

Denver Nuggets

New York Knicks

LA Clippers

Houston Rockets

Minnesota Timberwolves

Indiana Pacers

Detroit Pistons

Memphis Grizzlies

Milwaukee Bucks

Orlando Magic

<1%

Atlanta Hawks

<1%

Dallas Mavericks

<1%

Chicago Bulls

<1%

Miami Heat

<1%

Phoenix Suns

<1%

Portland Trail Blazers

<1%

Sacramento Kings

<1%

San Antonio Spurs

<1%

$2b Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in April?

$200k

$150k

$120k

$110k

$100k

$95k

16%

$90k

29%

$75k

84%

$70k

46%

$60k

13%

$50k

$40k

$6m Vol.

monthly

What price will Ethereum hit in April?

$8000

<1%

$6000

<1%

$5000

<1%

$4000

<1%

$3500

$3000

$2600

$2400

$2200

$2000

18%

$1400

66%

$1200

26%

$1000

10%

$3m Vol.

monthly

Rockets vs. Warriors

100%

Rockets

$705k Vol.

daily

Eurovision Winner 2025

Sweden

33%

Austria

26%

France

12%

Israel

Netherlands

Finland

Estonia

Albania

Ukraine

Belgium

Czechia

Germany

San Marino

Malta

Italy

Australia

<1%

Greece

<1%

United Kingdom

<1%

Spain

<1%

Cyprus

<1%

Denmark

<1%

Ireland

<1%

Latvia

<1%

Lithuania

<1%

Luxembourg

<1%

Norway

<1%

Poland

<1%

Portugal

<1%

Armenia

<1%

Azerbaijan

<1%

Georgia

<1%

Iceland

<1%

Montenegro

<1%

Serbia

<1%

Slovenia

<1%

Switzerland

<1%

Croatia

<1%

$31m Vol.

Bucks vs. Pelicans

100%

Bucks

$1m Vol.

daily

What price will XRP hit in April?

$3.50

$3.00

$2.70

11%

$2.50

19%

$2.40

25%

$2.30

35%

$1.80

98%

$1.50

57%

$1.00

$2m Vol.

Elon Musk # of tweets April 4-11?

<250

52%

250-274

16%

275-299

12%

300-324

325-349

350-374

375-399

400-424

425-449

450-474

<1%

475-499

<1%

500-524

<1%

525-549

<1%

550-574

<1%

575-599

<1%

600+

<1%

$1m Vol.

weekly

Bitcoin price on April 11?

>88k

86-88k

84-86k

82-84k

10%

80-82k

13%

78-80k

14%

<78k

50%

$972k Vol.

weekly

March 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

<1.22

<1%

1.22-1.26

<1%

1.27-1.31

<1%

1.32-1.36

70%

1.37-1.41

30%

>1.41

<1%

$2m Vol.

monthly

Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?

100%

chance

$40m Vol.

What price will Solana hit in April?

$300

<1%

$250

$210

$190

$170

$150

14%

$100

92%

$80

35%

$2m Vol.

monthly

Pacers vs. Nuggets

100%

Pacers

$369k Vol.

daily

Premier League Winner

Liverpool

97%

Arsenal

Nottingham Forest

<1%

Manchester City

<1%

Chelsea

<1%

Newcastle United

<1%

$806m Vol.

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