Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model by March 31, driven by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants command the top two spots with Elo ratings of 1504 and 1500, respectively, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview sits securely at third with 1493—edging xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 at 1491. Recent releases like Claude 4.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro have solidified this hierarchy through crowdsourced battles evaluating reasoning, coding, and creative capabilities, reflecting aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital. Though stable over the past week, a late xAI Grok update or voting surge could challenge Google's position before resolution, but historical leaderboard inertia favors the status quo.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于谷歌 97.4%
xAI 1.6%
Z.ai <1%
Anthropic <1%
$516,115 交易量
$516,115 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
谷歌
97%
xAI
2%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
谷歌 97.4%
xAI 1.6%
Z.ai <1%
Anthropic <1%
$516,115 交易量
$516,115 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
谷歌
$48,290 交易量
97%
xAI
$34,753 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$33,963 交易量
<1%
Anthropic
$96,939 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$42,980 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$78,503 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$51,744 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$51,115 交易量
<1%
百度
$50,997 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
<1%
美团
$26,832 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model by March 31, driven by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants command the top two spots with Elo ratings of 1504 and 1500, respectively, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview sits securely at third with 1493—edging xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 at 1491. Recent releases like Claude 4.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro have solidified this hierarchy through crowdsourced battles evaluating reasoning, coding, and creative capabilities, reflecting aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital. Though stable over the past week, a late xAI Grok update or voting surge could challenge Google's position before resolution, but historical leaderboard inertia favors the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$516,115结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model by March 31, driven by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants command the top two spots with Elo ratings of 1504 and 1500, respectively, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview sits securely at third with 1493—edging xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 at 1491. Recent releases like Claude 4.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro have solidified this hierarchy through crowdsourced battles evaluating reasoning, coding, and creative capabilities, reflecting aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital. Though stable over the past week, a late xAI Grok update or voting surge could challenge Google's position before resolution, but historical leaderboard inertia favors the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$516,115结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model by March 31, driven by the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants command the top two spots with Elo ratings of 1504 and 1500, respectively, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview sits securely at third with 1493—edging xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 at 1491. Recent releases like Claude 4.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro have solidified this hierarchy through crowdsourced battles evaluating reasoning, coding, and creative capabilities, reflecting aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital. Though stable over the past week, a late xAI Grok update or voting surge could challenge Google's position before resolution, but historical leaderboard inertia favors the status quo.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题