Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro commands a 68.5% implied probability for having the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by its recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a 1505 Elo rating in late March, closely trailing or edging Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at 1503. Traders' strong consensus reflects Google's iterative optimizations and multimodal strengths solidifying its competitive positioning behind the top two frontrunners—likely Anthropic and OpenAI variants—amid benchmark volatility. Anthropic's 25.5% odds stem from Claude Opus 4.6's March dominance across text, code, and reasoning arenas, narrowing the gap. Lower probabilities for OpenAI (3.1%) and xAI (2.3%) highlight their GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20 lagging in recent evaluations, with no major updates signaled before resolution; watch for last-minute releases from DeepMind or Anthropic.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Google 69%
Anthropic 26%
OpenAI 3.1%
xAI 2.3%
$114,384 交易量
$114,384 交易量
2026-04-30
69%
Anthropic
26%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
1%
Mistral
1%
Amazon
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 69%
Anthropic 26%
OpenAI 3.1%
xAI 2.3%
$114,384 交易量
$114,384 交易量
2026-04-30
$13,197 交易量
69%
Anthropic
$9,066 交易量
26%
OpenAI
$4,166 交易量
3%
xAI
$4,050 交易量
2%
DeepSeek
$22,794 交易量
1%
Baidu
$3,844 交易量
1%
Mistral
$3,846 交易量
1%
Amazon
$3,846 交易量
<1%
Alibaba
$15,888 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$7,319 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$4,338 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$18,006 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$4,024 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro commands a 68.5% implied probability for having the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by its recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a 1505 Elo rating in late March, closely trailing or edging Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at 1503. Traders' strong consensus reflects Google's iterative optimizations and multimodal strengths solidifying its competitive positioning behind the top two frontrunners—likely Anthropic and OpenAI variants—amid benchmark volatility. Anthropic's 25.5% odds stem from Claude Opus 4.6's March dominance across text, code, and reasoning arenas, narrowing the gap. Lower probabilities for OpenAI (3.1%) and xAI (2.3%) highlight their GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20 lagging in recent evaluations, with no major updates signaled before resolution; watch for last-minute releases from DeepMind or Anthropic.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
交易量
$114,384结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro commands a 68.5% implied probability for having the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by its recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a 1505 Elo rating in late March, closely trailing or edging Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at 1503. Traders' strong consensus reflects Google's iterative optimizations and multimodal strengths solidifying its competitive positioning behind the top two frontrunners—likely Anthropic and OpenAI variants—amid benchmark volatility. Anthropic's 25.5% odds stem from Claude Opus 4.6's March dominance across text, code, and reasoning arenas, narrowing the gap. Lower probabilities for OpenAI (3.1%) and xAI (2.3%) highlight their GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20 lagging in recent evaluations, with no major updates signaled before resolution; watch for last-minute releases from DeepMind or Anthropic.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$114,384结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro commands a 68.5% implied probability for having the third-best AI model by April's end, driven by its recent ascent to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a 1505 Elo rating in late March, closely trailing or edging Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at 1503. Traders' strong consensus reflects Google's iterative optimizations and multimodal strengths solidifying its competitive positioning behind the top two frontrunners—likely Anthropic and OpenAI variants—amid benchmark volatility. Anthropic's 25.5% odds stem from Claude Opus 4.6's March dominance across text, code, and reasoning arenas, narrowing the gap. Lower probabilities for OpenAI (3.1%) and xAI (2.3%) highlight their GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20 lagging in recent evaluations, with no major updates signaled before resolution; watch for last-minute releases from DeepMind or Anthropic.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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