Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic an 89.5% implied probability of retaining the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged dominance since its February 2026 release. The model tops both the overall and thinking variants, with Elo ratings well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #3 and xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 at #4, reflecting superior performance in complex reasoning and style adherence benchmarks. No major flagship releases are scheduled from rivals like OpenAI, Google, or xAI before month-end, amid a lull following March's flurry of updates, solidifying trader confidence despite potential surprises in AI capability evaluations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 90%
xAI 3.1%
Google 2.7%
OpenAI 2.1%
$848,790 交易量
$848,790 交易量
2026-04-30
Anthropic
90%
xAI
3%
3%
OpenAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 90%
xAI 3.1%
Google 2.7%
OpenAI 2.1%
$848,790 交易量
$848,790 交易量
2026-04-30
Anthropic
$28,099 交易量
90%
xAI
$132,196 交易量
3%
$131,873 交易量
3%
OpenAI
$90,655 交易量
2%
DeepSeek
$226,609 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$62,846 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$10,497 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$37,981 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$10,413 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$31,644 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$64,957 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$9,430 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$11,588 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic an 89.5% implied probability of retaining the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged dominance since its February 2026 release. The model tops both the overall and thinking variants, with Elo ratings well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #3 and xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 at #4, reflecting superior performance in complex reasoning and style adherence benchmarks. No major flagship releases are scheduled from rivals like OpenAI, Google, or xAI before month-end, amid a lull following March's flurry of updates, solidifying trader confidence despite potential surprises in AI capability evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
交易量
$848,790结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic an 89.5% implied probability of retaining the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged dominance since its February 2026 release. The model tops both the overall and thinking variants, with Elo ratings well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #3 and xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 at #4, reflecting superior performance in complex reasoning and style adherence benchmarks. No major flagship releases are scheduled from rivals like OpenAI, Google, or xAI before month-end, amid a lull following March's flurry of updates, solidifying trader confidence despite potential surprises in AI capability evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$848,790结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic an 89.5% implied probability of retaining the #1 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control On leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged dominance since its February 2026 release. The model tops both the overall and thinking variants, with Elo ratings well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #3 and xAI's Grok-4.20-beta1 at #4, reflecting superior performance in complex reasoning and style adherence benchmarks. No major flagship releases are scheduled from rivals like OpenAI, Google, or xAI before month-end, amid a lull following March's flurry of updates, solidifying trader confidence despite potential surprises in AI capability evaluations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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