Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has dominated the LMArena leaderboard—succeeding LMSYS Chatbot Arena—since early March 2026, leading in text, code, document, and reasoning benchmarks after a flurry of releases including OpenAI's GPT-5.4 on March 5, Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta. This recent supremacy explains subdued odds for challengers in Polymarket's multi-outcome market, yet trader consensus prices OpenAI at 29% implied probability and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 spot by June 30, driven by OpenAI's historical edge in balanced capabilities and xAI's rapid multimodal advances like Grok Imagine topping video arenas. Key catalysts include Meta's Llama 4 launch around April 5 and potential frontier model drops from major labs, amid volatile leaderboard shifts from crowdsourced battles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$1,310,406 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
OpenAI
29%
xAI
18%
阿里巴巴
8%
DeepSeek
7%
Meta
7%
Z.ai
6%
百度
4%
英伟达
4%
美团
3%
Mistral
41%
$1,310,406 交易量
OpenAI
$337,793 交易量
29%
xAI
$537,654 交易量
18%
阿里巴巴
$4,718 交易量
8%
DeepSeek
$138,461 交易量
7%
Meta
$12,737 交易量
7%
Z.ai
$4,396 交易量
6%
百度
$1,909 交易量
4%
英伟达
$5,838 交易量
4%
美团
$2,705 交易量
3%
Mistral
$6,224 交易量
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has dominated the LMArena leaderboard—succeeding LMSYS Chatbot Arena—since early March 2026, leading in text, code, document, and reasoning benchmarks after a flurry of releases including OpenAI's GPT-5.4 on March 5, Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta. This recent supremacy explains subdued odds for challengers in Polymarket's multi-outcome market, yet trader consensus prices OpenAI at 29% implied probability and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 spot by June 30, driven by OpenAI's historical edge in balanced capabilities and xAI's rapid multimodal advances like Grok Imagine topping video arenas. Key catalysts include Meta's Llama 4 launch around April 5 and potential frontier model drops from major labs, amid volatile leaderboard shifts from crowdsourced battles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$1,310,406结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has dominated the LMArena leaderboard—succeeding LMSYS Chatbot Arena—since early March 2026, leading in text, code, document, and reasoning benchmarks after a flurry of releases including OpenAI's GPT-5.4 on March 5, Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta. This recent supremacy explains subdued odds for challengers in Polymarket's multi-outcome market, yet trader consensus prices OpenAI at 29% implied probability and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 spot by June 30, driven by OpenAI's historical edge in balanced capabilities and xAI's rapid multimodal advances like Grok Imagine topping video arenas. Key catalysts include Meta's Llama 4 launch around April 5 and potential frontier model drops from major labs, amid volatile leaderboard shifts from crowdsourced battles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$1,310,406结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has dominated the LMArena leaderboard—succeeding LMSYS Chatbot Arena—since early March 2026, leading in text, code, document, and reasoning benchmarks after a flurry of releases including OpenAI's GPT-5.4 on March 5, Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta. This recent supremacy explains subdued odds for challengers in Polymarket's multi-outcome market, yet trader consensus prices OpenAI at 29% implied probability and xAI at 16% to claim the #1 spot by June 30, driven by OpenAI's historical edge in balanced capabilities and xAI's rapid multimodal advances like Grok Imagine topping video arenas. Key catalysts include Meta's Llama 4 launch around April 5 and potential frontier model drops from major labs, amid volatile leaderboard shifts from crowdsourced battles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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