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20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？

Market icon
科技·大型科技公司

20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？

上升

80% 概率
Polymarket

$10,280 交易量

上升

80% 概率
Polymarket

$10,280 交易量

This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability for tech layoffs to rise in 2026 over 2025 levels, driven by a surging Q1 pace exceeding 85,000 job cuts across 200+ companies per trackers like TrueUp—outpacing early 2025 trends amid aggressive AI-driven workforce optimization. Major firms including Amazon, Meta, Block (4,000 roles slashed), Atlassian, and Epic Games cited artificial intelligence automation, restructuring for efficiency, and softening demand as catalysts, even among profitable entities. This structural shift toward AI capabilities continues from 2025's 127,000+ U.S. tech cuts, with recent March announcements amplifying sentiment. Upcoming Q2 earnings calls and further AI model deployments could sustain momentum, though economic rebound or hiring in specialized AI roles might temper totals.

This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).

This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.

If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.

Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.

This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).

Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$10,280
结束日期
2027-02-28
市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 2:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability for tech layoffs to rise in 2026 over 2025 levels, driven by a surging Q1 pace exceeding 85,000 job cuts across 200+ companies per trackers like TrueUp—outpacing early 2025 trends amid aggressive AI-driven workforce optimization. Major firms including Amazon, Meta, Block (4,000 roles slashed), Atlassian, and Epic Games cited artificial intelligence automation, restructuring for efficiency, and softening demand as catalysts, even among profitable entities. This structural shift toward AI capabilities continues from 2025's 127,000+ U.S. tech cuts, with recent March announcements amplifying sentiment. Upcoming Q2 earnings calls and further AI model deployments could sustain momentum, though economic rebound or hiring in specialized AI roles might temper totals.

This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).

This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.

If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.

Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.

This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).

Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$10,280
结束日期
2027-02-28
市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 2:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？"是 Polymarket 上的一个每日预测市场，交易者买卖份额来预测 20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？ 的价格是否会在标题指定的每日窗口期内收高（"Up"）或收低（"Down"）于开盘价。当前市场概率为 87%（"上升"）。价格 87% 意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 87%。价格随着交易者对 20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？ 实时价格变动的反应而实时更新。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？"已产生 $10.3K 的总交易量。20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？ Up 或 Down 市场吸引活跃的交易者实时应对价格变动——这一活跃度确保了当前 Up/Down 赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以在本页追踪实时价格并直接交易。

要在"20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？"上交易，判断你认为 20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？ 在 February 27 东部时间中午的价格是高于（"Up"）还是低于（"Down"）March 20 东部时间中午的价格。如果你认为价格会上涨，买入"Up"；如果你认为会下跌，买入"Down"。输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你的结果正确，每份支付 $1.00。如果不正确，份额价值 $0。

"20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？"的当前概率为 87%（"上升"），意味着 Polymarket 社区目前认为 20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？ 在此每日窗口期内价格收上升的概率为 87%。这些赔率随着交易者对 20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？ 实时价格数据的反应而实时更新。在一整天内，赔率反映着随着当天价格走势展开而不断演变的市场情绪。 经常回来查看或立即交易。

"20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？"市场基于 February 27 东部时间中午与 March 20 东部时间中午的 20 26年技术裁员向上还是向下？ 价格比较来结算，使用 Binance TECH-LAYOFFS/USDT 1分钟蜡烛收盘价。如果 February 27 中午价格较高，结果为"Up"；如果较低，为"Down"；如果相等，市场以 50-50 结算。你可以在"规则"部分查看完整标准。