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政治·主要

南达科他州州长共和党初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·主要

南达科他州州长共和党初选获胜者

达斯蒂·约翰逊 52%

托比·多登 36%

拉里·罗登 10%

乔恩·汉森 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW

达斯蒂·约翰逊 52%

托比·多登 36%

拉里·罗登 10%

乔恩·汉森 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW

达斯蒂·约翰逊

$2,644 交易量

52%

托比·多登

$0 交易量

36%

拉里·罗登

$0 交易量

10%

乔恩·汉森

$0 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson at 51.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's Republican gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026, reflecting his recent polling lead in the Emerson College/KELO survey (March 7-9) showing 28% support versus Toby Doeden's 18%, acting Gov. Larry Rhoden's 17%, and House Speaker Jon Hansen's 14%, with 23% undecided. A candidate needs 35% to avoid a top-two runoff eight weeks later, underscoring the competitive field amid high undecideds. Johnson's edge stems from strong backing among voters under 40 and women, building on prior polls, while Doeden surges as a property tax-cutting outsider and Rhoden trails despite incumbency following Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation for a Trump administration role. No major endorsements or debates have shifted dynamics recently, with campaigning focused on fiscal reforms and rural priorities.

Trader consensus favors U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson at 51.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's Republican gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026, reflecting his recent polling lead in the Emerson College/KELO survey (March 7-9) showing 28% support versus Toby Doeden's 18%, acting Gov. Larry Rhoden's 17%, and House Speaker Jon Hansen's 14%, with 23% undecided. A candidate needs 35% to avoid a top-two runoff eight weeks later, underscoring the competitive field amid high undecideds. Johnson's edge stems from strong backing among voters under 40 and women, building on prior polls, while Doeden surges as a property tax-cutting outsider and Rhoden trails despite incumbency following Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation for a Trump administration role. No major endorsements or debates have shifted dynamics recently, with campaigning focused on fiscal reforms and rural priorities.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson at 51.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's Republican gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026, reflecting his recent polling lead in the Emerson College/KELO survey (March 7-9) showing 28% support versus Toby Doeden's 18%, acting Gov. Larry Rhoden's 17%, and House Speaker Jon Hansen's 14%, with 23% undecided. A candidate needs 35% to avoid a top-two runoff eight weeks later, underscoring the competitive field amid high undecideds. Johnson's edge stems from strong backing among voters under 40 and women, building on prior polls, while Doeden surges as a property tax-cutting outsider and Rhoden trails despite incumbency following Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation for a Trump administration role. No major endorsements or debates have shifted dynamics recently, with campaigning focused on fiscal reforms and rural priorities.

Trader consensus favors U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson at 51.5% implied probability to win South Dakota's Republican gubernatorial primary on June 2, 2026, reflecting his recent polling lead in the Emerson College/KELO survey (March 7-9) showing 28% support versus Toby Doeden's 18%, acting Gov. Larry Rhoden's 17%, and House Speaker Jon Hansen's 14%, with 23% undecided. A candidate needs 35% to avoid a top-two runoff eight weeks later, underscoring the competitive field amid high undecideds. Johnson's edge stems from strong backing among voters under 40 and women, building on prior polls, while Doeden surges as a property tax-cutting outsider and Rhoden trails despite incumbency following Kristi Noem's 2025 resignation for a Trump administration role. No major endorsements or debates have shifted dynamics recently, with campaigning focused on fiscal reforms and rural priorities.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"南达科他州州长共和党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"达斯蒂·约翰逊"，概率为 52%，其次是"托比·多登"，概率为 36%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 52¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 52%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"南达科他州州长共和党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Dec 11, 2025上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"南达科他州州长共和党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"南达科他州州长共和党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"达斯蒂·约翰逊"，概率为 52%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 52%。紧随其后的结果是"托比·多登"，概率为 36%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"南达科他州州长共和党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。