Polymarket traders price a 37% implied probability for South Africa annual CPI inflation exceeding 5.0% in 2026, reflecting upside risks from the recent Middle East conflict-driven oil price shock that prompted SARB to raise its 2026 forecast to 3.7% (Q2 peak at 4.0%, fuel inflation over 18%). February 2026 CPI eased to 3.0%—the lowest since mid-2025—on falling fuel and health costs, but administered price pressures intensify with Eskom's 8.76% electricity tariff hike effective April 1 and anticipated April fuel increases. Prolonged geopolitics or rand weakening could push inflation above 5%, skewing sentiment toward 4.1-4.4% (25%) and 3.2-3.5% (24.2%) as alternatives; watch March CPI release on April 22 for Q1 trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于>5.0% 38.5%
4.7-5.0% 31%
3.5-3.8% 26.2%
2.9-3.2% 20.4%
$21,154 交易量
$21,154 交易量
2027-01-20
低于2.6%
5%
2.6-2.9%
9%
2.9-3.2%
20%
3.2-3.5%
20%
3.5-3.8%
19%
3.8-4.1%
19%
4.1-4.4%
25%
4.4-4.7%
18%
4.7-5.0%
23%
>5.0%
39%
>5.0% 38.5%
4.7-5.0% 31%
3.5-3.8% 26.2%
2.9-3.2% 20.4%
$21,154 交易量
$21,154 交易量
2027-01-20
低于2.6%
$250 交易量
5%
2.6-2.9%
$270 交易量
9%
2.9-3.2%
$350 交易量
20%
3.2-3.5%
$363 交易量
20%
3.5-3.8%
$460 交易量
19%
3.8-4.1%
$655 交易量
19%
4.1-4.4%
$532 交易量
25%
4.4-4.7%
$12,089 交易量
18%
4.7-5.0%
$361 交易量
23%
>5.0%
$5,825 交易量
39%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Polymarket traders price a 37% implied probability for South Africa annual CPI inflation exceeding 5.0% in 2026, reflecting upside risks from the recent Middle East conflict-driven oil price shock that prompted SARB to raise its 2026 forecast to 3.7% (Q2 peak at 4.0%, fuel inflation over 18%). February 2026 CPI eased to 3.0%—the lowest since mid-2025—on falling fuel and health costs, but administered price pressures intensify with Eskom's 8.76% electricity tariff hike effective April 1 and anticipated April fuel increases. Prolonged geopolitics or rand weakening could push inflation above 5%, skewing sentiment toward 4.1-4.4% (25%) and 3.2-3.5% (24.2%) as alternatives; watch March CPI release on April 22 for Q1 trajectory.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
市场开放时间： Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
交易量
$21,154结束日期
2027-01-20市场开放时间
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Polymarket traders price a 37% implied probability for South Africa annual CPI inflation exceeding 5.0% in 2026, reflecting upside risks from the recent Middle East conflict-driven oil price shock that prompted SARB to raise its 2026 forecast to 3.7% (Q2 peak at 4.0%, fuel inflation over 18%). February 2026 CPI eased to 3.0%—the lowest since mid-2025—on falling fuel and health costs, but administered price pressures intensify with Eskom's 8.76% electricity tariff hike effective April 1 and anticipated April fuel increases. Prolonged geopolitics or rand weakening could push inflation above 5%, skewing sentiment toward 4.1-4.4% (25%) and 3.2-3.5% (24.2%) as alternatives; watch March CPI release on April 22 for Q1 trajectory.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
交易量
$21,154结束日期
2027-01-20市场开放时间
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 37% implied probability for South Africa annual CPI inflation exceeding 5.0% in 2026, reflecting upside risks from the recent Middle East conflict-driven oil price shock that prompted SARB to raise its 2026 forecast to 3.7% (Q2 peak at 4.0%, fuel inflation over 18%). February 2026 CPI eased to 3.0%—the lowest since mid-2025—on falling fuel and health costs, but administered price pressures intensify with Eskom's 8.76% electricity tariff hike effective April 1 and anticipated April fuel increases. Prolonged geopolitics or rand weakening could push inflation above 5%, skewing sentiment toward 4.1-4.4% (25%) and 3.2-3.5% (24.2%) as alternatives; watch March CPI release on April 22 for Q1 trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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