Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 64% implied probability, reflecting skepticism over unconfirmed timelines despite persistent rumors of a Q4 listing to preempt rivals like Anthropic. Recent catalysts include OpenAI's record $122 billion funding round closed this week—history's largest private raise—at an $852 billion valuation, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank, and $3 billion from retail investors, diminishing immediate public market pressure. The company is streamlining for profitability, axing consumer projects like Sora to prioritize high-margin enterprise AI tools amid $25 billion annualized revenue, while hiring ex-DocuSign CFO Sarah Friar bolsters finance team for potential S-1 filing. High-cap outcomes like 1.25T–1.5T (9.8%) hinge on IPO execution and public market enthusiasm for AI dominance, but regulatory scrutiny and valuation discounts pose risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO） 64%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元 9.8%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元 7.1%
1.5万亿美元+ 6.5%
$1,544,514 交易量
$1,544,514 交易量
2026-06-30
<500B
6%
5000亿美元–7500亿美元
3%
7500亿美元–1万亿美元
6%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元
7%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元
10%
1.5万亿美元+
6%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO）
64%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO） 64%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元 9.8%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元 7.1%
1.5万亿美元+ 6.5%
$1,544,514 交易量
$1,544,514 交易量
2026-06-30
<500B
$256,616 交易量
6%
5000亿美元–7500亿美元
$138,423 交易量
3%
7500亿美元–1万亿美元
$129,050 交易量
6%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元
$171,472 交易量
7%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元
$486,465 交易量
10%
1.5万亿美元+
$91,363 交易量
6%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO）
$271,139 交易量
64%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 64% implied probability, reflecting skepticism over unconfirmed timelines despite persistent rumors of a Q4 listing to preempt rivals like Anthropic. Recent catalysts include OpenAI's record $122 billion funding round closed this week—history's largest private raise—at an $852 billion valuation, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank, and $3 billion from retail investors, diminishing immediate public market pressure. The company is streamlining for profitability, axing consumer projects like Sora to prioritize high-margin enterprise AI tools amid $25 billion annualized revenue, while hiring ex-DocuSign CFO Sarah Friar bolsters finance team for potential S-1 filing. High-cap outcomes like 1.25T–1.5T (9.8%) hinge on IPO execution and public market enthusiasm for AI dominance, but regulatory scrutiny and valuation discounts pose risks.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,544,514结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 64% implied probability, reflecting skepticism over unconfirmed timelines despite persistent rumors of a Q4 listing to preempt rivals like Anthropic. Recent catalysts include OpenAI's record $122 billion funding round closed this week—history's largest private raise—at an $852 billion valuation, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank, and $3 billion from retail investors, diminishing immediate public market pressure. The company is streamlining for profitability, axing consumer projects like Sora to prioritize high-margin enterprise AI tools amid $25 billion annualized revenue, while hiring ex-DocuSign CFO Sarah Friar bolsters finance team for potential S-1 filing. High-cap outcomes like 1.25T–1.5T (9.8%) hinge on IPO execution and public market enthusiasm for AI dominance, but regulatory scrutiny and valuation discounts pose risks.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,544,514结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at a 64% implied probability, reflecting skepticism over unconfirmed timelines despite persistent rumors of a Q4 listing to preempt rivals like Anthropic. Recent catalysts include OpenAI's record $122 billion funding round closed this week—history's largest private raise—at an $852 billion valuation, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank, and $3 billion from retail investors, diminishing immediate public market pressure. The company is streamlining for profitability, axing consumer projects like Sora to prioritize high-margin enterprise AI tools amid $25 billion annualized revenue, while hiring ex-DocuSign CFO Sarah Friar bolsters finance team for potential S-1 filing. High-cap outcomes like 1.25T–1.5T (9.8%) hinge on IPO execution and public market enthusiasm for AI dominance, but regulatory scrutiny and valuation discounts pose risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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