Trader consensus reflects a 91% implied probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by the slow legislative process following recent bipartisan bill introductions. On March 23, Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) launched the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act to prohibit CFTC-registered contracts resembling sports bets, amid other proposals targeting insider trading and broader restrictions, yet none have advanced beyond introduction amid competing priorities. CFTC guidance issued March 12 affirmed oversight of sports event contracts without endorsing bans, while the Trump administration's April 2 lawsuits against Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona for state-level restrictions signal federal support for market expansion. No committee hearings or floor votes are scheduled, underscoring enactment barriers before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-06-30
是
最新
最新
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 91% implied probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by the slow legislative process following recent bipartisan bill introductions. On March 23, Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) launched the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act to prohibit CFTC-registered contracts resembling sports bets, amid other proposals targeting insider trading and broader restrictions, yet none have advanced beyond introduction amid competing priorities. CFTC guidance issued March 12 affirmed oversight of sports event contracts without endorsing bans, while the Trump administration's April 2 lawsuits against Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona for state-level restrictions signal federal support for market expansion. No committee hearings or floor votes are scheduled, underscoring enactment barriers before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$9,526结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 91% implied probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by the slow legislative process following recent bipartisan bill introductions. On March 23, Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) launched the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act to prohibit CFTC-registered contracts resembling sports bets, amid other proposals targeting insider trading and broader restrictions, yet none have advanced beyond introduction amid competing priorities. CFTC guidance issued March 12 affirmed oversight of sports event contracts without endorsing bans, while the Trump administration's April 2 lawsuits against Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona for state-level restrictions signal federal support for market expansion. No committee hearings or floor votes are scheduled, underscoring enactment barriers before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$9,526结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 91% implied probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by the slow legislative process following recent bipartisan bill introductions. On March 23, Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) launched the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act to prohibit CFTC-registered contracts resembling sports bets, amid other proposals targeting insider trading and broader restrictions, yet none have advanced beyond introduction amid competing priorities. CFTC guidance issued March 12 affirmed oversight of sports event contracts without endorsing bans, while the Trump administration's April 2 lawsuits against Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona for state-level restrictions signal federal support for market expansion. No committee hearings or floor votes are scheduled, underscoring enactment barriers before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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