Market icon
科技·特斯拉

2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少辆车？

Market icon
科技·特斯拉

2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少辆车？

Mar 31

Mar 31

35万–37.5万 62%

少于35万 32%

37.5万–40万 7.1%

45万–47.5万 <1%

Polymarket

$748,841 交易量

35万–37.5万 62%

少于35万 32%

37.5万–40万 7.1%

45万–47.5万 <1%

Polymarket

$748,841 交易量

少于35万

$244,225 交易量

32%

35万–37.5万

$135,482 交易量

62%

37.5万–40万

$48,540 交易量

7%

40万–42.5万

$26,927 交易量

<1%

425,000–450,000

$57,083 交易量

<1%

45万–47.5万

$165,843 交易量

<1%

47.5万–50万

$44,318 交易量

<1%

50万+

$26,427 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 350k–375k Tesla vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 at 59.5% implied probability, driven by historical Q1 seasonality—typically 20–25% below Q4 peaks due to Chinese New Year factory slowdowns—and Elon Musk's recent guidance for low single-digit growth in 2025 amid production ramps for next-generation affordable EVs and Cybercab robotaxi. Q4 2024's 495k delivery beat lifted short-term sentiment, but analysts like Barclays and Morgan Stanley project 2026 quarterly averages in the mid-300ks early on, factoring in Cybertruck scaling limits, intensifying BYD competition in China, and softening U.S. EV demand amid high interest rates. Upcoming catalysts include H1 2025 model launches and Full Self-Driving regulatory progress, which could push volumes higher if executed flawlessly, though delays remain a key risk tilting toward the <350k outcome at 32%.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 350k–375k Tesla vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 at 59.5% implied probability, driven by historical Q1 seasonality—typically 20–25% below Q4 peaks due to Chinese New Year factory slowdowns—and Elon Musk's recent guidance for low single-digit growth in 2025 amid production ramps for next-generation affordable EVs and Cybercab robotaxi. Q4 2024's 495k delivery beat lifted short-term sentiment, but analysts like Barclays and Morgan Stanley project 2026 quarterly averages in the mid-300ks early on, factoring in Cybertruck scaling limits, intensifying BYD competition in China, and softening U.S. EV demand amid high interest rates. Upcoming catalysts include H1 2025 model launches and Full Self-Driving regulatory progress, which could push volumes higher if executed flawlessly, though delays remain a key risk tilting toward the <350k outcome at 32%.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 350k–375k Tesla vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 at 59.5% implied probability, driven by historical Q1 seasonality—typically 20–25% below Q4 peaks due to Chinese New Year factory slowdowns—and Elon Musk's recent guidance for low single-digit growth in 2025 amid production ramps for next-generation affordable EVs and Cybercab robotaxi. Q4 2024's 495k delivery beat lifted short-term sentiment, but analysts like Barclays and Morgan Stanley project 2026 quarterly averages in the mid-300ks early on, factoring in Cybertruck scaling limits, intensifying BYD competition in China, and softening U.S. EV demand amid high interest rates. Upcoming catalysts include H1 2025 model launches and Full Self-Driving regulatory progress, which could push volumes higher if executed flawlessly, though delays remain a key risk tilting toward the <350k outcome at 32%.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 350k–375k Tesla vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 at 59.5% implied probability, driven by historical Q1 seasonality—typically 20–25% below Q4 peaks due to Chinese New Year factory slowdowns—and Elon Musk's recent guidance for low single-digit growth in 2025 amid production ramps for next-generation affordable EVs and Cybercab robotaxi. Q4 2024's 495k delivery beat lifted short-term sentiment, but analysts like Barclays and Morgan Stanley project 2026 quarterly averages in the mid-300ks early on, factoring in Cybertruck scaling limits, intensifying BYD competition in China, and softening U.S. EV demand amid high interest rates. Upcoming catalysts include H1 2025 model launches and Full Self-Driving regulatory progress, which could push volumes higher if executed flawlessly, though delays remain a key risk tilting toward the <350k outcome at 32%.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少辆车？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 8 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"35万–37.5万"，概率为 62%，其次是"少于35万"，概率为 32%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 62¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 62%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少辆车？"已产生 $748.8K 的总交易量（自Jan 2, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少辆车？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 8 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少辆车？"的当前领先者是"35万–37.5万"，概率为 62%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 62%。紧随其后的结果是"少于35万"，概率为 32%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年第一季度特斯拉交付了多少辆车？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。