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Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?

Mar 29

Mar 29

27°C 36%

26°C 23%

28°C 23%

29°C 8%

Polymarket

$55,014 交易量

27°C 36%

26°C 23%

28°C 23%

29°C 8%

Polymarket

$55,014 交易量

21°C or below

$14,270 交易量

<1%

22°C

$7,370 交易量

<1%

23°C

$10,617 交易量

<1%

24°C

$3,809 交易量

<1%

25°C

$2,515 交易量

7%

26°C

$2,049 交易量

23%

27°C

$2,571 交易量

36%

28°C

$2,055 交易量

23%

29°C

$2,685 交易量

8%

30°C

$2,878 交易量

3%

31°C or higher

$4,194 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Baoan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 27°C high in Shenzhen at 34.5% implied probability, driven by the latest 12Z runs from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside China Meteorological Administration guidance, which cluster peak afternoon temperatures around 26–28°C under a subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting above-average warmth. This edging out of 26°C (24.5%) and 28°C (21.5%) reflects ensemble means near 27°C, but high uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover potentially reducing insolation, sea breezes moderating coastal highs, and risks of afternoon convection. March climatology averages 23–24°C highs, yet recent observations—including a 29°C peak on March 26—signal persistent heat; watch CMA hourly updates from Shenzhen Bao'an station for resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 27°C high in Shenzhen at 34.5% implied probability, driven by the latest 12Z runs from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside China Meteorological Administration guidance, which cluster peak afternoon temperatures around 26–28°C under a subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting above-average warmth. This edging out of 26°C (24.5%) and 28°C (21.5%) reflects ensemble means near 27°C, but high uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover potentially reducing insolation, sea breezes moderating coastal highs, and risks of afternoon convection. March climatology averages 23–24°C highs, yet recent observations—including a 29°C peak on March 26—signal persistent heat; watch CMA hourly updates from Shenzhen Bao'an station for resolution.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Baoan International Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 27°C high in Shenzhen at 34.5% implied probability, driven by the latest 12Z runs from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside China Meteorological Administration guidance, which cluster peak afternoon temperatures around 26–28°C under a subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting above-average warmth. This edging out of 26°C (24.5%) and 28°C (21.5%) reflects ensemble means near 27°C, but high uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover potentially reducing insolation, sea breezes moderating coastal highs, and risks of afternoon convection. March climatology averages 23–24°C highs, yet recent observations—including a 29°C peak on March 26—signal persistent heat; watch CMA hourly updates from Shenzhen Bao'an station for resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 27°C high in Shenzhen at 34.5% implied probability, driven by the latest 12Z runs from global models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside China Meteorological Administration guidance, which cluster peak afternoon temperatures around 26–28°C under a subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting above-average warmth. This edging out of 26°C (24.5%) and 28°C (21.5%) reflects ensemble means near 27°C, but high uncertainty stems from variable cloud cover potentially reducing insolation, sea breezes moderating coastal highs, and risks of afternoon convection. March climatology averages 23–24°C highs, yet recent observations—including a 29°C peak on March 26—signal persistent heat; watch CMA hourly updates from Shenzhen Bao'an station for resolution.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 11 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"27°C"，概率为 36%，其次是"26°C"，概率为 23%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 36¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 36%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?"已产生 $55K 的总交易量（自Mar 25, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 11 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?"的当前领先者是"27°C"，概率为 36%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 36%。紧随其后的结果是"26°C"，概率为 23%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 29?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。