Ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward 15-17°C as the highest temperature in Ankara on March 28, with 16°C leading at 27% implied probability amid a building high-pressure system ushering mild continental air. Recent runs show peak heating in the early afternoon, but diverge on cloud cover from an approaching weak front—clearer skies tilt toward 17°C (21%), while increasing overcast favors 15°C (20.5%). Historical March highs average 12-14°C per Turkish State Meteorological Service data, making this warmer outlook notable; uncertainty persists in boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects, with final MGM observations at Esenboğa station resolving the market. Traders eye hourly forecast refinements for edges.