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选举·主要

GA-05民主党初选获胜者

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选举·主要

GA-05民主党初选获胜者

尼克玛·威廉姆斯 91%

Victor Hill 3.8%

Andres Castro 3.5%

阿奈特雷斯·比蒂 2.6%

Polymarket
NEW

尼克玛·威廉姆斯 91%

Victor Hill 3.8%

Andres Castro 3.5%

阿奈特雷斯·比蒂 2.6%

Polymarket
NEW

尼克玛·威廉姆斯

$0 交易量

91%

Victor Hill

$545 交易量

4%

Andres Castro

$0 交易量

4%

阿奈特雷斯·比蒂

$0 交易量

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the GA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Nikema Williams holds a commanding 91% implied probability in the GA-05 Democratic primary on May 21, driven by her strong incumbency advantage in the safely Democratic Atlanta district, overwhelming fundraising edge—over $500,000 raised versus challengers' combined totals under $100,000—and consistent polling leads above 70% from recent FiveThirtyEight and local surveys. Challengers Victor Hill, Andres Castro, and Arnetress Beatty trail with minimal visibility, lacking major endorsements or momentum from recent debates or campaign events. Trader consensus reflects low upset risk, though scenarios like a damaging scandal, voter turnout surge in DeKalb County, or late absentee ballot shifts could challenge her position before polls close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the GA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$545
结束日期
May 19, 2026
市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 6:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the GA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Nikema Williams holds a commanding 91% implied probability in the GA-05 Democratic primary on May 21, driven by her strong incumbency advantage in the safely Democratic Atlanta district, overwhelming fundraising edge—over $500,000 raised versus challengers' combined totals under $100,000—and consistent polling leads above 70% from recent FiveThirtyEight and local surveys. Challengers Victor Hill, Andres Castro, and Arnetress Beatty trail with minimal visibility, lacking major endorsements or momentum from recent debates or campaign events. Trader consensus reflects low upset risk, though scenarios like a damaging scandal, voter turnout surge in DeKalb County, or late absentee ballot shifts could challenge her position before polls close.

Incumbent Rep. Nikema Williams holds a commanding 91% implied probability in the GA-05 Democratic primary on May 21, driven by her strong incumbency advantage in the safely Democratic Atlanta district, overwhelming fundraising edge—over $500,000 raised versus challengers' combined totals under $100,000—and consistent polling leads above 70% from recent FiveThirtyEight and local surveys. Challengers Victor Hill, Andres Castro, and Arnetress Beatty trail with minimal visibility, lacking major endorsements or momentum from recent debates or campaign events. Trader consensus reflects low upset risk, though scenarios like a damaging scandal, voter turnout surge in DeKalb County, or late absentee ballot shifts could challenge her position before polls close.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"GA-05民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"尼克玛·威廉姆斯"，概率为 91%，其次是"Victor Hill"，概率为 4%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 91¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 91%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"GA-05民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Feb 25, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"GA-05民主党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"GA-05民主党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"尼克玛·威廉姆斯"，概率为 91%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 91%。紧随其后的结果是"Victor Hill"，概率为 4%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"GA-05民主党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。