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气候与科学·科学

2026年3月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热门？

Market icon
气候与科学·科学

2026年3月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热门？

4月 10

5月 10

4月 10

5月 10

第4或更低 98.1%

有史以来最热 <1%

第三热 <1%

第二热 <1%

Polymarket

$276,388 交易量

第4或更低 98.1%

有史以来最热 <1%

第三热 <1%

第二热 <1%

Polymarket

$276,388 交易量

有史以来最热

$96,972 交易量

<1%

第二热

$54,289 交易量

<1%

第三热

$95,197 交易量

<1%

第4或更低

$29,929 交易量

98%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and NOAA's global land-ocean temperature index place March 2026's average surface air temperature fourth or lower among historical records, trailing the record set in March 2024 (0.73°C above 1991-2020 average), second-place March 2025, and prior peaks like 2016 amid El Niño-driven heat. This positioning reflects emerging La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific, which cooled sea surface temperatures and disrupted the streak of record-breaking months through 2025. Trader consensus at 98% for "4th or lower" aligns with this observational data, though minor revisions in final datasets—expected mid-April—could theoretically elevate it if land anomalies adjust upward, a scenario deemed unlikely given model stability and historical revision patterns.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$276,388
结束日期
2026-04-10
市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis and NOAA's global land-ocean temperature index place March 2026's average surface air temperature fourth or lower among historical records, trailing the record set in March 2024 (0.73°C above 1991-2020 average), second-place March 2025, and prior peaks like 2016 amid El Niño-driven heat. This positioning reflects emerging La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific, which cooled sea surface temperatures and disrupted the streak of record-breaking months through 2025. Trader consensus at 98% for "4th or lower" aligns with this observational data, though minor revisions in final datasets—expected mid-April—could theoretically elevate it if land anomalies adjust upward, a scenario deemed unlikely given model stability and historical revision patterns.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$276,388
结束日期
2026-04-10
市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年3月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热门？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 4 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"第4或更低"，概率为 98%，其次是"有史以来最热"，概率为 0%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 98¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 98%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年3月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热门？"已产生 $276.4K 的总交易量（自Feb 26, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年3月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热门？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 4 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年3月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热门？"的当前领先者是"第4或更低"，概率为 98%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 98%。紧随其后的结果是"有史以来最热"，概率为 0%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年3月1日、2日、3日有史以来最热门？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。