Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA datasets indicate March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly fell below 1.4°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—insufficient to challenge the top three rankings held by El Niño-boosted Marches like 2016 (around 1.7°C) and 2024. La Niña conditions through early 2026 suppressed anomalies by enhancing Pacific cooling, aligning with historical ENSO patterns where neutral-to-La Niña phases yield 0.2–0.5°C lower global temperatures than El Niño peaks. Trader consensus at 98.5% for fourth or lower reflects this robust evidence across monitoring agencies. Upward revisions in final reports (expected mid-April from NOAA, early May from Copernicus) could theoretically shift odds, but multi-dataset convergence makes top-three contention highly improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于第4或更低 98.5%
有史以来最热 <1%
第三热 <1%
第二热 <1%
$309,389 交易量
$309,389 交易量
2026-04-10
有史以来最热
1%
第二热
<1%
第三热
1%
第4或更低
99%
第4或更低 98.5%
有史以来最热 <1%
第三热 <1%
第二热 <1%
$309,389 交易量
$309,389 交易量
2026-04-10
有史以来最热
$114,587 交易量
1%
第二热
$59,306 交易量
<1%
第三热
$100,673 交易量
1%
第4或更低
$34,822 交易量
99%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA datasets indicate March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly fell below 1.4°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—insufficient to challenge the top three rankings held by El Niño-boosted Marches like 2016 (around 1.7°C) and 2024. La Niña conditions through early 2026 suppressed anomalies by enhancing Pacific cooling, aligning with historical ENSO patterns where neutral-to-La Niña phases yield 0.2–0.5°C lower global temperatures than El Niño peaks. Trader consensus at 98.5% for fourth or lower reflects this robust evidence across monitoring agencies. Upward revisions in final reports (expected mid-April from NOAA, early May from Copernicus) could theoretically shift odds, but multi-dataset convergence makes top-three contention highly improbable.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
交易量
$309,389结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA datasets indicate March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly fell below 1.4°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—insufficient to challenge the top three rankings held by El Niño-boosted Marches like 2016 (around 1.7°C) and 2024. La Niña conditions through early 2026 suppressed anomalies by enhancing Pacific cooling, aligning with historical ENSO patterns where neutral-to-La Niña phases yield 0.2–0.5°C lower global temperatures than El Niño peaks. Trader consensus at 98.5% for fourth or lower reflects this robust evidence across monitoring agencies. Upward revisions in final reports (expected mid-April from NOAA, early May from Copernicus) could theoretically shift odds, but multi-dataset convergence makes top-three contention highly improbable.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$309,389结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA datasets indicate March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly fell below 1.4°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—insufficient to challenge the top three rankings held by El Niño-boosted Marches like 2016 (around 1.7°C) and 2024. La Niña conditions through early 2026 suppressed anomalies by enhancing Pacific cooling, aligning with historical ENSO patterns where neutral-to-La Niña phases yield 0.2–0.5°C lower global temperatures than El Niño peaks. Trader consensus at 98.5% for fourth or lower reflects this robust evidence across monitoring agencies. Upward revisions in final reports (expected mid-April from NOAA, early May from Copernicus) could theoretically shift odds, but multi-dataset convergence makes top-three contention highly improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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