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政治·特朗普

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?

Market icon
政治·特朗普

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?

6% 機率
Polymarket
最新
6% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.Trader consensus heavily favors no repeal of presidential term limits under the 22nd Amendment, reflecting the formidable constitutional barriers requiring two-thirds majorities in both House and Senate plus ratification by 38 states—a threshold far beyond current Republican control. H.J.Res. 29, introduced in January 2025 by Rep. Andy Ogles to allow up to three presidential elections, remains stalled in the House Judiciary Committee with no hearings, votes, or cosponsors after over a year. President Trump has not prioritized the issue, instead unveiling congressional term limits in February 2026 and signing an executive order for a national voter eligibility list last week. Absent momentum ahead of 2026 midterms, traders see negligible path to amendment this year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
交易量
$6,442
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.Trader consensus heavily favors no repeal of presidential term limits under the 22nd Amendment, reflecting the formidable constitutional barriers requiring two-thirds majorities in both House and Senate plus ratification by 38 states—a threshold far beyond current Republican control. H.J.Res. 29, introduced in January 2025 by Rep. Andy Ogles to allow up to three presidential elections, remains stalled in the House Judiciary Committee with no hearings, votes, or cosponsors after over a year. President Trump has not prioritized the issue, instead unveiling congressional term limits in February 2026 and signing an executive order for a national voter eligibility list last week. Absent momentum ahead of 2026 midterms, traders see negligible path to amendment this year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
交易量
$6,442
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 6% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 6¢, the market collectively assigns a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?" is 6% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.