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政治·格陵蘭

美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎？

Market icon
政治·格陵蘭

美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎？

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$1,266,530 交易量

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$1,266,530 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite President Trump's renewed push since early 2026 to acquire Greenland—citing its strategic Arctic value amid competition with Russia and China, including reported orders for contingency plans and military rhetoric—trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability of no U.S. invasion this year, driven by Pentagon denials of any such plans, strong Danish assertions of sovereignty, and Greenland's public opposition to annexation. Recent developments, including U.S.-Denmark-Greenland diplomatic talks launched in late January and ongoing negotiations for expanded U.S. military bases via agreement rather than force, signal de-escalation. NATO alliance strains and internal U.S. military pushback further diminish invasion risks, though abrupt breakdowns in dialogue or escalated territorial disputes could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,266,530
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite President Trump's renewed push since early 2026 to acquire Greenland—citing its strategic Arctic value amid competition with Russia and China, including reported orders for contingency plans and military rhetoric—trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability of no U.S. invasion this year, driven by Pentagon denials of any such plans, strong Danish assertions of sovereignty, and Greenland's public opposition to annexation. Recent developments, including U.S.-Denmark-Greenland diplomatic talks launched in late January and ongoing negotiations for expanded U.S. military bases via agreement rather than force, signal de-escalation. NATO alliance strains and internal U.S. military pushback further diminish invasion risks, though abrupt breakdowns in dialogue or escalated territorial disputes could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,266,530
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎？" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎？" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎？" is "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎？" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國會在2026年入侵格陵蘭嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.