Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, driven by explicit denials from top U.S. military leaders, including a March 19 statement from a senior general that no rehearsals or preparations for takeover are underway. Recent escalations center on Trump's January executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba's hosting of adversarial military assets and human rights abuses, coupled with an oil blockade exacerbating island blackouts and scarcities, yet these remain economic pressures without kinetic shifts. Cuban officials' warnings of military readiness, U.S. public polls showing majority opposition to force for regime change, and Democratic legislative efforts to restrict actions underscore high barriers, diverting focus to Iran and Venezuela amid stretched resources.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$1,262,770 交易量
$1,262,770 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,262,770 交易量
$1,262,770 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, driven by explicit denials from top U.S. military leaders, including a March 19 statement from a senior general that no rehearsals or preparations for takeover are underway. Recent escalations center on Trump's January executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba's hosting of adversarial military assets and human rights abuses, coupled with an oil blockade exacerbating island blackouts and scarcities, yet these remain economic pressures without kinetic shifts. Cuban officials' warnings of military readiness, U.S. public polls showing majority opposition to force for regime change, and Democratic legislative efforts to restrict actions underscore high barriers, diverting focus to Iran and Venezuela amid stretched resources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市場開放時間： Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
交易量
$1,262,770結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, driven by explicit denials from top U.S. military leaders, including a March 19 statement from a senior general that no rehearsals or preparations for takeover are underway. Recent escalations center on Trump's January executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba's hosting of adversarial military assets and human rights abuses, coupled with an oil blockade exacerbating island blackouts and scarcities, yet these remain economic pressures without kinetic shifts. Cuban officials' warnings of military readiness, U.S. public polls showing majority opposition to force for regime change, and Democratic legislative efforts to restrict actions underscore high barriers, diverting focus to Iran and Venezuela amid stretched resources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$1,262,770結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, driven by explicit denials from top U.S. military leaders, including a March 19 statement from a senior general that no rehearsals or preparations for takeover are underway. Recent escalations center on Trump's January executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba's hosting of adversarial military assets and human rights abuses, coupled with an oil blockade exacerbating island blackouts and scarcities, yet these remain economic pressures without kinetic shifts. Cuban officials' warnings of military readiness, U.S. public polls showing majority opposition to force for regime change, and Democratic legislative efforts to restrict actions underscore high barriers, diverting focus to Iran and Venezuela amid stretched resources.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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